K33研究主管Vetle Lunde表示，根据最近三个周期的数据，比特币在每个周期中从第一个历史高点到最后一个历史高点的平均持续时间为318天。① According to data from the crypto research company K33, Bitcoin may reach a new cycle high on January 17, 2025, based on historical cycles; ② K33's research director Vetle Lunde predicts that if history repeats, Bitcoin's price could peak at $146,000.
According to Caixin News on December 25 (editor Huang Junzhi), Bitcoin has failed to break through since surpassing the $100,000 mark earlier this month and even fell below $93,000 following last week's Federal Reserve meeting. Federal Reserve officials expect to cut interest rates only twice next year, a significant reduction from the previously anticipated four times.
However, according to data from the crypto research company K33, history shows that Bitcoin may reach a new historical high by around mid-January. Currently, Bitcoin's price has rebounded and is hovering around $98,000.
Vetle Lunde, the research director at K33, stated that based on data from the last three cycles, the average duration for Bitcoin to go from the first historical high to the last historical high in each cycle is 318 days.
In the current cycle, Bitcoin reached its historical high on March 5, and if the average duration of previous cycles serves as a reference, investors may see the cryptocurrency reach a new, final peak in this cycle on January 17, 2025.
This means that if Bitcoin's price truly reaches the cycle peak in mid-January, that date will be close to Donald Trump's inauguration as President of the USA on January 20.
Lunde wrote in his latest report: "Trump's election is the catalyst behind the strong rebound in the fourth quarter, and given that political processes may take time to materialize, Trump's inauguration will be a natural end to this momentum."
He further added that based on estimates of previous cycle peak prices, Bitcoin might peak at $146,000 in this cycle. If referenced against previous market caps, Bitcoin could even reach a top of $212,500 in this cycle.
Crypto Analysts typically divide Bitcoin's price performance into four-year cycles, each cycle undergoing four phases: breakout, hype, correction, and accumulation. These cycles are primarily based on Bitcoin's halving schedule, which is a mechanism to control the supply of Cryptos, where the reward for Bitcoin mining is halved. Halvings occur approximately every four years, with the most recent one happening in April of this year.
However, it can be said that Bitcoin has a relatively short history as an Asset, since it was only launched in 2009. Due to such a small sample size, its historical price data may not have enough significance, and past performance does not always predict future performance.
As Lunde mentioned, the cyclical influence of Bitcoin has also become less evident as the effects of halving diminish.