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2024年终盘点|困难重重但难挡全球汽车业电动化大潮 中国车企出口仍将有不错成绩

2024 Year-End Review | Faced with numerous difficulties, but the Global Autos industry's wave of electrification cannot be stopped. Chinese car companies will still achieve good results in exports.

cls.cn ·  Dec 24 22:53

On October 29 local time, the European Commission announced the conclusion of the anti-subsidy investigation and decided to impose a final anti-subsidy tax on electric vehicles imported from China for five years. Geely Auto Holdings CEO Gui Shengyue stated that Geely can not only cope with the additional 18.8% tariff imposed by the EU, but the import tariffs will also not hinder the company from gaining a larger market share on the European continent.

According to Caixin, on December 23 (Reporter Liu Yang) since the second half of 2024, dialogues and negotiations between China and Europe regarding the anti-subsidy case for electric vehicles have continued.

On December 19, the Ministry of Commerce made the latest response regarding the price commitment negotiations between China and the EU concerning the electric vehicle anti-subsidy case. At the routine press conference held in the morning, Ministry spokesperson He Yongqian stated that China has consistently advocated resolving trade frictions through dialogue and negotiations and has been making maximum efforts regarding the price commitment negotiations for the EU's electric vehicle anti-subsidy case. It is hoped that the EU side will take practical actions as soon as possible to jointly advance negotiations with China.

On October 29 local time, the European Commission announced the conclusion of the anti-subsidy investigation and decided to impose a final anti-subsidy tax on electric vehicles (BEV) imported from China for five years. According to the document released by the European Commission, on the basis of the original 10% tariff, the final anti-subsidy tax rates for three sampled Chinese electric vehicle companies BYD, Geely, and SAIC are 17.0%, 18.8%, and 35.3%, respectively, while the tax rate for Tesla is 7.8%, the anti-subsidy tax rate for non-sampled cooperating enterprises is 20.7%, and for other non-cooperating enterprises, the tax rate is 35.3%. This will be implemented from October 30.

"The European side has not fundamentally changed its erroneous practices, the ruling results do not comply with WTO rules, and it has not addressed the core concerns of the China-Europe industry, which China does not agree with or accept." At that time, He Yadong, Deputy Director of the General Office of the Ministry of Commerce and spokesperson, stated at a routine press conference. The China Machinery Industry Federation, the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, and the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade successively issued statements expressing strong opposition to the final ruling.

Subsequently, from November 2 to 7, technical teams from China and Europe conducted five rounds of consultations in Peking, engaging in in-depth discussions on the specific content of the EU's price commitment scheme regarding the anti-subsidy case for electric vehicles from China, achieving some progress. Both parties agreed to continue consultations through video or other means.

"The protection of the European automotive industry is the primary goal of its current tax increase policy." Lantu Auto CEO Lu Fang believes that behind this protection is actually the fear of traditional EU automobile manufacturers regarding the rapid development of China's new energy vehicles, which is direct proof of the strong product strength and overwhelming competitive advantages of China's independent new energy sector.

In recent years, Chinese electric vehicle companies have rapidly expanded their market share in Europe, becoming important competitors. According to data, from January to November, China's auto exports reached 5.345 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21.2%. Among the top ten countries exporting new energy vehicles from January to November, Belgium leads with 242,297 units, followed by Brazil, the United Kingdom, Thailand, and the Philippines.

Currently, more than 20 Chinese brands have entered or plan to enter the European market in the future. On December 23, Xpeng Motors completed the delivery of its 10,000th new car in Europe in Ebersberg, Germany, becoming the first Chinese pure electric new force brand to achieve 10,000 deliveries in Europe. Similarly, in the European market, the sales of the SAIC MG brand in the first 11 months exceeded 0.22 million vehicles, maintaining positive year-on-year growth, and is expected to set a new annual high. An insider from LEAPMOTOR told reporters, "Since launching in Europe in September, the LEAPMOTOR T03 model has started sales in 13 countries including the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, with outstanding sales performance."

In stark contrast to the grand ambitions of Chinese car manufacturers in the European market, European companies are collectively "wintering." According to incomplete statistics, several European companies, including Volkswagen, Audi, Ford, and Bosch, plan to lay off a total of over 0.05 million people in the coming years.

Data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) shows that due to a significant decline in car sales in France and Italy, as well as stagnation in car sales in Germany, the number of new vehicle registrations in the EU, European Free Trade Association (EFTA), and the United Kingdom decreased by 2% year-on-year in November, to approximately 1.06 million units. In the EU market, sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) fell by 9.5% in November, primarily due to declines in the French and German markets.

"The difficulties faced by European car manufacturers partly stem from the slower-than-expected pace of the new energy transition." Industry insiders believe that in the past, high profits of many European car manufacturers in the Chinese market compensated for the operation of European factories. However, with the changing landscape of the Chinese market, this balance has been disrupted, and the continued shrinkage of the traditional RBOB Gasoline vehicle market has intensified these companies' profit pressures. "Although the transition to electric vehicles is viewed as the future direction of development, the high R&D investment and fierce market competition have made it difficult for many companies to achieve profitability quickly."

On December 3 local time, the European Commission announced an important plan to utilize funds raised through the EU Emissions Trading System (EUETS) to invest 4.6 billion euros in supporting decarbonization technologies and clean hydrogen projects. Of this, 2.4 billion euros is allocated for subsidies for manufacturing projects involving Wind Power, energy storage, heat pumps, and hydrogen components; 1.2 billion euros in subsidies is specifically provided by the European Hydrogen Bank to accelerate the production of renewable hydrogen (green hydrogen), focusing on efficient water electrolysis technology for hydrogen production and its applications in industries, transportation, and more; the final 1 billion euros in subsidies will continue to support projects that specifically provide power Battery manufacturing for electric vehicles, aiming to support projects capable of producing innovative electric vehicle batteries or deploying innovative manufacturing technologies, processes, and techniques. At that time, the European Commission emphasized "reducing dependence on China" when announcing the plan.

"China has accumulated rich expertise in the electric vehicle sector over the past 10-15 years, with high competitiveness stemming from quality and affordable prices." Analysts related to European policy believe that policymakers in the European Commission and various European countries must understand that whether it is the new energy transformation of the automotive industry or the broader global green transition, there is only one correct path — more open and collaborative international cooperation, with a more trusting attitude towards cooperation among each other.

Geely Automobile Holdings CEO Gui Shengyue stated that Geely can not only cope with the additional 18.8% tariff imposed by the EU but also that import tariffs will not hinder the company's ability to gain a larger market share in Europe. "With our technical advantages in various aspects, I believe we have the ability to absorb the (EU) tariffs. The truly effective way to reduce costs is through technological advancements."

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