Due to the Christmas holiday, the US stock market closed early, with the three major indices collectively rising on Christmas Eve. The Nasdaq increased by 1.35%, returning to above 12,000 points; the S&P 500 Index rose by 1.1%, and the Dow Jones increased by 0.91%. Large technology stocks rose across the board, with Tesla up over 7%, Netflix rising more than 2%, and Apple, Amazon, and Meta each increasing over 1%, while NVIDIA, Google, Intel, and Microsoft saw slight gains. Notably, Apple reached a new high for three consecutive trading days, with a total market value of $3.9 trillion. AMD rose by 1.36%, Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares increased by 0.95%, while Eli Lilly and Co dropped by 0.08%, and Taiwan Semiconductor ADR fell by 0.5%.
China Concept Stocks showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 0.79%. Fangdd Network increased by over 5%, NIO and DouYu rose by over 3%, and UP Fintech increased by over 2%, while Li Auto and Xpeng Motors each gained over 1%.
ETFs tracking US stock indices saw premiums rise today, with the CSI Cons Stap ETF increasing by over 6%, and the NASDAQ 100 ETF rising by over 3%. The Nasdaq ETFs from Fidelity, the NASDAQ 100 ETF, the USA 50 ETF, the NASDAQ 100 ETF, the Nasdaq ETFs from E Fund, the NASDAQ 100 Index ETF, the USA 50 ETF, and the NASDAQ 100 ETF all rose by over 2%.
As of December 25, since the beginning of the year, the CSI Cons Stap ETF has increased by over 60%; the USA 50 ETF, NASDAQ 100 ETF, and Nasdaq ETFs have each risen by over 40%. The premium rate for the CSI Cons Stap ETF is 24.47%, while the NASDAQ 100 ETF's premium rate is 9.27%.
Regarding the current US stock market, Citi Analysts indicated that although US stocks have recently declined after the Federal Reserve took a more cautious stance on interest rate cuts in 2025, they 'remain in an extended and bullish state.' Citi's latest equity positioning model report highlighted that the level of S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures positions has slightly slowed but still remains firmly within the extended range. Despite a slight increase in short positions last week, the analyst emphasized that this change did not significantly alter the strong bullish sentiment surrounding these indices. Additionally, analysts warned that small-cap indices like the Russell 2000 still face downside risk, with bulls accumulating losses. Moreover, Citi's report noted significant divergence in the global markets, with European stock markets becoming increasingly bearish, witnessing a continuous and gradually increasing influx of bearish funds, a trend also observed in ETF capital flows, indicating that investor confidence in the European region is weakening.
Guosen Securities pointed out that the US stock AIAE Indicator has risen to 52%, surpassing historical peaks in valuation. According to the latest data released by the Federal Reserve on December 12, the AIAE Indicator for US stocks rose to 52% in the third quarter, exceeding the highs during the 2000 internet bubble, indicating a high risk of retracement. The US AIAE Indicator has a strong correlation with the S&P 500's movements, having previously exceeded 50% in 2000 and 2022, after which the S&P 500 experienced significant corrections of 46% and 25%, respectively. Currently, the AIAE has climbed to 52%, exceeding historical highs, necessitating caution regarding the current evaluation risks in the US stock market.
Ping An Securities believes that thanks to both Trump and the Federal Reserve simultaneously "loosening" economic conditions, the US stock market still has a chance to challenge new highs. However, there are also significant risks of adjustment in the US stock market, including fluctuating inflation, tariffs, and the potential turning point of the AI bull market, suggesting that investors may need to remain 'cautious' while being optimistic.
