昨日，比特币上涨了6.1%，目前报98048美元/枚。此前12月17日，比特币创下108309美元/枚的历史新高，但在上周美联储放鹰后下跌。According to the analysis, according to estimates based on the historical rules of Bitcoin trends, the price of Bitcoin may reach a new high of 146,000 US dollars/coin on January 17, 2025, close to Trump's inauguration on January 20. Analysts believe that after Trump comes to power, the hype related to Trump's deal will come to an end.
Is Bitcoin about to reach the peak of this cycle?
On December 24, MarketWatch reported that Bitcoin has been fluctuating since breaking through the 0.1 million dollar mark earlier this month. However, analysts at crypto research firm K33 said that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could break a new high and then peak by mid-January 2025.
Yesterday, Bitcoin rose 6.1% and is currently at $9,8048 per unit. Earlier, on December 17, Bitcoin hit a record high of $108,309 per coin, but fell after the Federal Reserve hawked last week.
Vetle Lunde, head of the K33 research department, said that according to historical data, the average time from when Bitcoin first hit an all-time high until the last time it hit an all-time high was 318 days. Since the first historical high of this cycle occurred on March 5, Bitcoin may reach a new high on January 17, 2025.
Generally speaking, cryptocurrency analysts divide Bitcoin's price performance into a four-year cycle — each cycle includes four stages of breakout, hype, adjustment, and accumulation. The four-year cycle is mainly based on the Bitcoin halving schedule, that is, controlling the Bitcoin supply through a halving mechanism. The halving occurs approximately every four years, and the most recent halving occurred in April of this year.
If Bitcoin actually reaches its cyclical peak in mid-January, it will be close to Trump's presidential inauguration on January 20. Lunde believes that once Trump comes to power, the hype around Trump's deal will come to an end. Bitcoin is one of them:
“Trump's election was a catalyst for Bitcoin's strong rebound in the fourth quarter, and the inauguration may be a natural end to this momentum, as fulfilling Trump's policy promises requires a political process.”
Lunde said that according to estimates of the peak price of Bitcoin in the previous few cycles, the peak value of Bitcoin in the current cycle may reach 146,000 US dollars/piece; if we refer to the previous market value, the highest price of Bitcoin in this cycle may reach 212,500 US dollars/piece.
However, it should be noted that since Bitcoin was launched in 2009, it is still very short as an asset. In addition, the sample size is small, Bitcoin's historical price data may not be representative enough, and past performance may not necessarily predict future performance.
In fact, as the halving effect waned, the cyclical effect of Bitcoin became less obvious, Lunde pointed out.
Currently, as the end of the year approaches, the enthusiasm in the cryptocurrency market seems to have cooled down a bit. As of Monday, Bitcoin ETFs have had outflows for three consecutive days.
Furthermore, although MSTR announced on Monday that it has once again purchased 5,262 bitcoins at a price of about $10,6662 per coin, analysts at crypto trading firm QCP Capital pointed out: “This is MSTR's smallest recent purchase volume. It is doubtful that MSTR's buying interest (has weakened) at this price level.”
