历史两次抢装周期均是叠加五年规划末年和电价补贴下调/取消，行业均实现了历史新高的新增装机量，但产业链价格和盈利的弹性上2020年抢装明显高于2015年，结构上风机零部件环节的盈利弹性均大于整机环节。CICC estimates that by 2025, the newly installed capacity of wind power in China is expected to reach 110-120 GW, and this round of rush to install is less affected by policies; the demand for new installations in 2026 may still have continuity.
According to Zhito Finance APP, CICC released a research report stating that the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2025 is approaching, and the domestic wind power industry is expected to achieve a historical high in new installed capacity. By reviewing the rush installation cycles of 2015 and 2020-2021, it is estimated that there are similarities and many differences between this round in 2025 and previous years of rush installation, but overall, the profit margin trend of various links in the Industry Chain in 2025 is bullish.
Review of the rush installation years of 2015 and 2020-2021.
Both historical rush installation cycles overlapped with the last year of five-year plans and the reduction/cancellation of electricity price subsidies, with the industry achieving historical new highs in new installed capacity; however, the elasticity of prices and profitability in the Industry Chain during the 2020 rush was significantly higher than in 2015, with the profitability elasticity in the wind turbine component segment exceeding that of the complete machine segment.
Looking ahead to the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2025.
CICC predicts that: 1) The newly installed capacity of wind power in China is expected to reach 110-120 GW in 2025, and this round of rush installation is less impacted by policies, with continuity in new installation demand in 2026. Offshore wind power is expected to change the low-key construction status that has persisted for three years since the 2021 rush installation, with new installations under conservative and optimistic scenarios at 14/17 GW; 2) The newly installed capacity and output value of onshore wind power remain mismatched, so offshore wind power is key to driving the increase in manufacturing output value in the domestic wind power industry in 2025; 3) The price elasticity of the entire Industry Chain is limited, and may be significantly lower than in 2020, but the profit margin in each segment shows an upward trend, driven by product structure optimization, lower upstream raw material costs, reduced unit fixed costs due to increased shipments, and slight price increases in some segments.
Suggestions for attention: 1) Benefiting from the domestic offshore wind power growth, Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables (603606.SH), Haili Wind Power (301155.SZ), Titan Wind Energy (002531.SZ); 2) Goldwind Science& Technology (002202.SZ), Windey Energy Technology Group (300772.SZ), Sany Renewable Energy (688349.SH), Ming Yang Smart Energy (601615.SH) under the trend of continuous recovery in complete machine segment profits; 3) Benefiting from lower raw material costs and reduced unit fixed costs, Jinlei Technology (300443.SZ), Riyue Heavy Industry (603218.SH); 4) Dajin Heavy Industry (002487.SZ) and Shanghai Taisheng Wind Power Equipment (300129.SZ) driven by continuous exports.
Risk Factors
The demand in the industry is below expectations, raw material prices have rebounded sharply, and competition in the industry has intensified.
