目前，QQQ报529.96点，意味着到明年4月还有近50%的下跌空间。As 2024 is about to end, Technology Stocks are still providing "firepower" to the US stock market. However, recently, an Analyst warned that the tech bubble in the US stock market is approaching a "critical point", and a large-scale sell-off from hedge funds may be imminent...
Recently, Steven Jon Kaplan, CEO of the True Contrarian blog and newsletter, reiterated his "contrarian bet" on Technology Stocks. Although his predictions have not materialized yet, he insists that the tech bubble in the US stock market is now larger.
Kaplan has successfully predicted several sell-offs in Technology Stocks in recent years, with his notable moments including advising to Buy during the pandemic sell-off in 2020. In April of this year, he predicted that the ETF tracking the NASDAQ 100 Index, Invesco QQQ Trust Series QQQ, would fall to 300 points within a year and below 100 points within three years.
Currently, QQQ is at 529.96 points, indicating a nearly 50% downside potential by next April.
Kaplan expressed his concern that corporate profit expectations are too high, and increasing evidence suggests that the spending of large tech companies on AI has not translated into significant profits. He also stated:
"Large hedge funds may start selling off, as these funds account for a significant portion of the daily trading volume in Technology Stocks. Currently, most hedge funds follow an algorithm that, if stocks like QQQ drop by 20%, those funds worth trillions of dollars will simultaneously sell off."
Kaplan warned that if $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ If it drops to 360, the first wave of selling may come.
Furthermore, this year, insiders from companies including NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, and Walmart have engaged in selling. Kaplan noted that the selling by these insiders reached a record high in July, dipped slightly in August, but hit another record high in November and December:
"This is a very large amount and has spread from large technology stocks to many other components."
It is worth noting that Kaplan invested his own funds into $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ This ETF has fallen from $180 in March 2020 to the current $87.87. He stated that only when investors start seeing losses in the stock market is there a possibility for large-scale inflows into TLT.
In addition, Kaplan warned that the current bear market may have already begun and predicted that the next bear market will bottom in the second half of 2027, after which another strong bull market will start. He also mentioned that there may be a rebound before that:
"A rebound may occur next summer, followed by another decline. After the market crash, large tech stocks and well-known stocks may perform exceptionally well. It is advisable to pay attention to the market winners from 2002 to 2007, including Emerging Markets, Golden Minerals stocks, commodity producers, and small to mid-cap companies, rather than large stocks."
Editor/Danial
