WEILONG GRAPE WINE CO., Ltd (SHSE:603779) shares have had a horrible month, losing 27% after a relatively good period beforehand. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 39% in that time.
Although its price has dipped substantially, when almost half of the companies in China's Beverage industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 4.9x, you may still consider WEILONG GRAPE WINE as a stock probably not worth researching with its 6.5x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.
What Does WEILONG GRAPE WINE's P/S Mean For Shareholders?
As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at WEILONG GRAPE WINE over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for WEILONG GRAPE WINE, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the industry for P/S ratios like WEILONG GRAPE WINE's to be considered reasonable.
In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 3.7%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 8.9% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 13% shows it's an unpleasant look.
In light of this, it's alarming that WEILONG GRAPE WINE's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Key Takeaway
Despite the recent share price weakness, WEILONG GRAPE WINE's P/S remains higher than most other companies in the industry. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that WEILONG GRAPE WINE currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 1 warning sign for WEILONG GRAPE WINE that you should be aware of.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.