According to the commerce ministry, Thailand's customs-cleared exports increased by 8.2% year-on-year (YoY) in November. This figure aligns closely with analysts' expectations of an 8.4% rise, as indicated in a Reuters poll, but marks a slowdown from October's robust 14.6% growth. The ministry also reported a 5.1% rise in exports for the first 11 months of 2024, with a forecast of 5.2% growth for the entire year. This is cited by MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd (MIDF Research) in their report today.
The growth in exports, a key driver of Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, has been accompanied by a moderation in imports, which rose by 0.9% in November compared to 15.9% in October. This disparity led to a significant narrowing of the trade deficit, contracting by 71.6% year-on-year to US$224.4 million.
Agricultural exports saw a 4.1% increase in November, supported by strong demand for fresh, chilled, frozen, and dried fruits (+44.8%), pet foods (+18.1%), and canned and processed fruits (+24.6%). Agro-industrial exports also rose by 7.7%, maintaining a positive trajectory.
Manufactured products contributed significantly to the export growth, climbing 9.5% YoY. This was driven by higher purchases of electrical equipment (+13.8%) and electronic machines (+9.6%). However, exports of semiconductors, transistors, and diodes experienced a steep decline of 71.5%, while exports of motor vehicles and related components contracted slightly by 0.3%.
Geographically, shipments to the US (+9.5%), China (+16.9%), and the EU (+11.2%) showed strong growth. In contrast, exports to Japan (-3.5%) and ASEAN countries (-1.5%) declined, reflecting uneven demand across regions.
While Thailand's export performance continues to rebound, MIDF Research predicted that geopolitical tensions and rising trade protectionism remain risks to the trade outlook. Despite weaknesses in Thailand's semiconductor exports, Malaysia's trade prospects may benefit from the sustained recovery in the electrical and electronics sector, supported by the positive performance of the semiconductor industry globally.
