他还补充称，衰退应该不会持续太久，然后立刻回到上升轨道。但由于现在市场上大企业的集中度，任何数据中心建设的放缓都将对芯片供应链产生巨大影响。且在上升期来之前，情况或许将非常凶险。① Nvidia's supplier Advantest, which controls more than half of the global semiconductor testing market, issued a warning; ② The company's CEO is watching whether major US tech companies' spending on artificial intelligence is slowing down, which may affect the chip supply chain. ③ However, Lefever believes that demand for artificial intelligence smartphones can partially offset the impact of the semiconductor industry's decline, and the decline will not last long.
AFP, December 26 (Editor Malan) Doug Lefever, a supplier of Nvidia and CEO of Advantest, the world's largest chip testing machine company, said he is closely monitoring the trends of major US technology companies to see if their spending on artificial intelligence is slowing down.
Lefever said that if investment in data centers slows down, demand for artificial intelligence smartphones will help protect parts of the semiconductor industry from the downturn.
He also added that the recession should not last long before returning to an upward trajectory immediately. However, due to the current concentration of large companies in the market, any slowdown in data center construction will have a huge impact on the chip supply chain. Also, before the rise period comes, the situation will probably be very dangerous.
Frontier market views
Tokyo-based Advantest is Nvidia's main supplier of high-end graphics processing unit test equipment, and one of the companies that has benefited the most from rapid growth in semiconductor demand. The company controls more than half of the semiconductor testing market, and as chips become more advanced and expensive, the market's demand for its services has risen sharply.
According to Lefever, Advantest's equipment may now require 10-20 tests on a completed advanced chip, from cutting the wafer to assembling the finished product. But five years ago, that number was only a single digit.
At the same time, testing time has also been extended, with Nvidia's latest Blackwell product testing time three to four times longer than the previous generation. As a result, Advantest raised its net revenue target for the 2024 fiscal year by 16% to nearly $0.8 billion in October.
This also brings Advantest very close to the frontier of chip sales. Lefever notes that now everyone is holding their breath and waiting for killer apps for artificial smartphones to appear. Once it comes out and pushes people to start changing phones, it's going to get crazy.