Panichpibool表示，美联储的政策利率前景也很重要，因为它对亚洲央行的货币政策决策和货币之间的利率差异有潜在影响。上周，美联储政策制定者将2025年的降息预测从100个基点下调至50个基点，并上调了通胀预测。On Thursday, most Emerging Asian currencies weakened against the US dollar due to investors focusing on the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook.
The South Korean won is one of the worst-performing Asian currencies this year amid domestic political turmoil and US President Trump's tariff threats, with the won falling 0.6% against the dollar to its lowest level since March 2009. The Thai baht fell 0.3% against the dollar, and the Indian rupee hit an all-time low against the dollar.
Poon Panichpibool, a market strategist at Krung Thai Bank, stated that Trump's 2.0 policies could support the US economy, maintaining the strength of the dollar and putting more selling pressure on Emerging Markets assets. The won, baht, and Malaysian ringgit are considered more vulnerable to Trump's policies as these countries have export-oriented economies.
Panichpibool indicated that the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate outlook is also important, as it could have potential impacts on monetary policy decisions by Asian central banks and the interest rate differentials between currencies. Last week, Federal Reserve policymakers lowered the forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025 from 100 basis points to 50 basis points and raised inflation forecasts.
The market is currently pricing in only about 35 basis points of easing policy for 2025, leading to a surge in US Treasury yields, with the dollar exchange rate approaching a two-year high.
