有分析指出，受特朗普当选美国总统以来美元和债券收益率持续上涨的影响，以及印度的国际收支（BoP）状况不断发生变化，南亚货币被进一步削弱。据IDFC First Bank的计算，印度的贸易逆差从4月到11月同比扩大了18.4%。IDFC believes that the current account deficit combined with a strong dollar will continue to put pressure on the rupee, predicting that the rupee will further depreciate to 86 rupees per dollar by September 2025, which represents a potential decline of about 0.9% from the current rate of 85.23 rupees.
Under the dual blow of an expanding trade deficit and weak capital flows, the Indian rupee's exchange rate has set a historical low for the seventh consecutive trading day, further exacerbating the overall decline this quarter.
On Thursday, December 26, the rupee fell to a historic low of 85.2525 against the USD, following the downward trend of most Asian currencies, and is currently reported at 85.23. Since early October, the rupee has accumulated a decline of about 1.74%, and it is expected to record the worst quarterly performance since the third quarter of 2022 (July to September).
Analysts point out that the continuous rise of the USD and Bond yields since Trump's election as President of the USA, along with the changing status of India’s Balance of Payments (BoP), has further weakened South Asian currencies. According to calculations from IDFC First Bank, India's trade deficit has expanded by 18.4% year-on-year from April to November.
Meanwhile, data from the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) in India also shows that this quarter, the outflow of stocks and Bonds reached 10.3 billion USD, while the previous quarter saw an inflow of 20 billion USD.
Economists state that these factors have led to a BoP deficit for India this quarter, and it is estimated that the BoP deficit for this fiscal year will be between 20 billion and 30 billion USD. This sharply contrasts with a surplus of over 60 billion USD in the previous fiscal year.
IDFC believes:
The combination of a trade deficit and a strong dollar will continue to put pressure on the rupee, and it is expected that the rupee will further depreciate to 86 rupees per dollar by September 2025.
This means there is about 0.9% room for a drop from the current 85.23 rupees.
In addition, some analysts point out that the market expects Trump's 2.0 policies to boost the economy and increase inflation, with the USD hovering near the year's high since the beginning of the year.
