We Think WESCO International (NYSE:WCC) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
We Think WESCO International (NYSE:WCC) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that WESCO International, Inc. (NYSE:WCC) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
由巴菲特的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李录直言不讳地表示,'最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性资本损失。' 当我们考虑一家公司有多大的风险时,我们总是喜欢关注它的债务使用,因为债务负担过重可能会导致毁灭。 我们可以看到,西科国际(NYSE:WCC)确实在其业务中使用了债务。 但是,这项债务对股东来说是否令人担忧?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
为什么债务带来风险?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
一般来说,债务只有在公司不能轻松偿还时才会成为真正的问题,无论是通过筹集资本还是用其自身的现金流。 资本主义的一部分是'创造性毁灭'的过程,失败的企业会被他们的银行毫不留情地清算。 然而,更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,公司必须以低廉的股价稀释股东的持股,才能简单地控制债务。 然而,通过替代稀释,债务对于需要资本进行高收益增长投资的企业而言,可以成为极好的工具。 当我们检查债务水平时,首先考虑现金和债务水平的结合。
How Much Debt Does WESCO International Carry?
西科国际的债务有多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that WESCO International had debt of US$4.96b at the end of September 2024, a reduction from US$5.37b over a year. However, it also had US$706.8m in cash, and so its net debt is US$4.26b.
下面的图像,可以点击以获取更大细节,显示西科国际在2024年9月底的债务为49.6亿美元,比一年前的53.7亿美元有所减少。 然而,它也有70680万美元的现金,因此其净债务为42.6亿美元。
How Strong Is WESCO International's Balance Sheet?
西科国际的资产负债表有多强?
The latest balance sheet data shows that WESCO International had liabilities of US$3.93b due within a year, and liabilities of US$6.31b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$706.8m as well as receivables valued at US$4.07b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$5.46b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
最新的资产负债表数据显示,西科国际在一年内的负债为39.3亿美元,还有63.1亿美元的负债将在之后到期。抵消这些义务,它拥有现金70680万美元以及价值40.7亿美元的应收账款,均将在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债总额比现金和短期应收账款的总和多出54.6亿美元。
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of US$8.84b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
与其88.4亿美元的市值相比,这是一笔巨额的杠杆。这表明,如果公司需要快速修补其资产负债表,股东将被大量稀释。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
我们通过查看公司的净债务与息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)的比率,以及计算息税前利润(EBIT)覆盖利息费用的能力(利息保障率),来衡量公司的债务负担相对于其盈利能力的情况。这种方法的优势在于,我们同时考虑了债务的绝对量(通过净债务与EBITDA的比率)和与该债务相关的实际利息费用(通过其利息保障率)。
WESCO International's debt is 2.9 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 3.5 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Investors should also be troubled by the fact that WESCO International saw its EBIT drop by 15% over the last twelve months. If that's the way things keep going handling the debt load will be like delivering hot coffees on a pogo stick. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine WESCO International's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
西科国际的债务是其EBITDA的2.9倍,而其EBIT能够覆盖其利息支出3.5倍。这表明,尽管债务水平相当高,但我们可以不称之为有问题。投资者还应该担忧的是,西科国际在过去12个月里其EBIT下降了15%。如果情况持续这样,处理债务负担就像在蹦床上送热咖啡一样毫无保障。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最大。但正是未来的收益将判断西科国际能否在未来维持健康的资产负债表。因此,如果你关注未来,可以查看这份显示分析师利润预测的免费报告。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. In the last three years, WESCO International's free cash flow amounted to 22% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
但我们的最终考虑同样重要,因为公司无法用纸面利润来偿还债务;它需要的是冷硬现金。因此,我们必须明确关注EBIT是否转化为相应的自由现金流。在过去三年中,西科国际的自由现金流仅占其EBIT的22%,低于我们的预期。这种较弱的现金转化使得处理债务更加困难。
Our View
我们的观点
We'd go so far as to say WESCO International's EBIT growth rate was disappointing. And even its level of total liabilities fails to inspire much confidence. Overall, we think it's fair to say that WESCO International has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If all goes well, that should boost returns, but on the flip side, the risk of permanent capital loss is elevated by the debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 2 warning signs with WESCO International (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
我们甚至可以说西科国际的EBIT增长率令人失望。而且,其总负债水平也未能激发太多信心。总体而言,我们认为可以公正地说,西科国际的债务足够多,这使得资产负债表存在一些真实风险。如果一切顺利,这应该会提高回报,但相对而言,债务增加了永久资本损失的风险。分析债务时,显然资产负债表是需要关注的关键领域。然而,并不是所有的投资风险都源于资产负债表——远非如此。我们已经识别出西科国际的两个警示信号(至少有一个比较令人担忧),理解它们应该是你投资过程的一部分。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
当然,如果你是那种喜欢购买没有债务负担的股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,今天就来发现我们独家的净现金成长股票列表。
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