印度卢比汇率(美元兑印度卢比)从84卢比贬值85卢比仅仅用了两个月的时间，而此前从83跌至84则用了将近14个月。The US dollar strengthened, and the Indian rupee closed at an all-time low for three consecutive trading days.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that the Indian rupee exchange rate continued to weaken on Thursday due to currency depreciation pressure brought about by the increasingly strong US dollar and the demand for US dollars from importers at the end of the month, hitting a new low level of exchange for three consecutive trading days.
On Thursday, the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the US dollar closed at 85.2625, compared to 85.20 on the previous trading day. The US dollar once hit 85.2825 against the Indian rupee during the day, which meant that the rupee exchange rate depreciated to an all-time low. “The importer isForeign exchange transactionsIt has been quite active, and near the end of the year, the foreign exchange market's trading volume is relatively low.” A trader at an Indian private bank said.
It only took two months for the Indian rupee exchange rate (USD/INR) to depreciate 85 rupees from 84 rupees, while the previous drop from 83 to 84 took almost 14 months.
Since the Indian rupee broke through 84 points in mid-October, the rupee exchange rate has been gradually falling. The core reason is that the market's economic growth to India is slowing, foreign capital outflows to India, and the US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff trade policy and the Federal Reserve's hawkish investment sentiment driving global capital to the US dollar and US stocks.
During the depreciation of the rupee, continued intervention by the Central Bank of India curbed the rapid depreciation trend of the rupee to a certain extent, forcing the depreciation rate to slow down, but failed to stop the rupee from moving towards a depreciation trajectory.
Due to numerous major interventions by the Central Bank of India, although the exchange rate against the US dollar depreciated sharply, the actual effective exchange rate of the Indian rupee (that is, the value of the rupee compared to various mainstream foreign currencies after adjustment) reached a multi-year high of 108.14 in November.
“This means the rupee is still overvalued, so any possibility of a sharp rise can be ruled out,” said Anil Bansali, financial director from Finrex Treasury Advisors.
“Therefore, any downward trend in the USD/INR exchange rate is an important opportunity to buy on dips. It is expected that the rupee will continue to weaken against the US dollar.” Bansali said.
The exchange rate of the US dollar against major global currencies and Asian currencies has risen sharply since November, thanks to the rising trend in US Treasury yields and a sharp cooling in market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates next year. Earlier this month, the Fed's policymakers communicated with the market through a “bitmap” to try to manage expectations of interest rate cuts in the financial market. The “bitmap” shows that the number of interest rate cuts the Fed will implement in 2025 will be less than the 4-6 interest rate cuts previously predicted by the interest rate futures market, indicating that the Fed may cut interest rates only 2 times in 2025.
