There's Reason For Concern Over Harson Trading (China) Co.,Ltd.'s (SHSE:603958) Massive 29% Price Jump
There's Reason For Concern Over Harson Trading (China) Co.,Ltd.'s (SHSE:603958) Massive 29% Price Jump
Harson Trading (China) Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:603958) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 29% gain in the last month alone. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 89%.
After such a large jump in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Harson Trading (China)Ltd is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 4.4x, considering almost half the companies in China's Luxury industry have P/S ratios below 1.6x. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
What Does Harson Trading (China)Ltd's Recent Performance Look Like?
We'd have to say that with no tangible growth over the last year, Harson Trading (China)Ltd's revenue has been unimpressive. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the benign revenue growth will improve to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Harson Trading (China)Ltd, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.How Is Harson Trading (China)Ltd's Revenue Growth Trending?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, Harson Trading (China)Ltd would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.
If we review the last year of revenue, the company posted a result that saw barely any deviation from a year ago. This isn't what shareholders were looking for as it means they've been left with a 17% decline in revenue over the last three years in total. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 14% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that Harson Trading (China)Ltd's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Final Word
Harson Trading (China)Ltd's P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
Our examination of Harson Trading (China)Ltd revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.
Having said that, be aware Harson Trading (China)Ltd is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those can't be ignored.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.