Orient predicts that Hutchmed (China) (00013) will have revenue of 680 million, 844 million, and 1 billion dollars for the years 2024-2026 respectively.
According to a research report released by Orient, it is predicted that Hutchmed (China) (00013) will have revenues of 680, 844, and 1000 million USD in 2024-2026, respectively. Based on comparable companies, a PS of 4.4 times is given for the year 2025, corresponding to a Target Price of HKD 33.24, and a "Buy" rating is given for the first time.
The main points from Orient are as follows:
A small molecule innovative drug company with a global layout.
The company was founded in 2000 and has been deeply engaged in the small molecule oncology field for over twenty years. It already has three commercialized products and multiple late-stage clinical drugs, and has accumulated rich experience in commercial operation. At the same time, it collaborates with MNCs to explore international markets. CK Hutchison Holdings is the largest shareholder, the management team structure is stable, and it has a deep research and development background. The company's operation is stable, with a revenue CAGR of 23.1% from 2017 to 2023, and it achieved profitability for the first time in 2023 with USD 0.101 billion.
Innovative products are entering commercialization, and overseas expansion is being realized.
1) Furmonertinib: Focused on gastrointestinal tumors, promoting globalization. In the last 1-2 years, Furmonertinib's colorectal cancer indication has been launched in the three major markets of the USA, Europe, and Japan, and is rapidly gaining volume both domestically and internationally. Furmonertinib possesses potential for "pan-cancer" indications and is expected to expand to endometrial cancer and renal cancer in the future; 2) Savolitinib: Aiming at the vast market for EGFR-TKI resistance. As the first MET inhibitor in China, Savolitinib was conditionally approved for market entry in 2021 and was included in the national medical insurance in 2023. Moreover, Savolitinib targets NSCLC (non-small cell lung cancer) EGFR-TKI resistance: NDA submission is expected next year for second and third-line EGFR-TKI resistant/MET+ indications in China; in collaboration with AstraZeneca, it targets the second and third-line osimertinib resistant/MET+ indications, with NDA submission anticipated in the USA by the end of this year.
A comprehensive layout for autoimmune diseases & hematological tumors, with significant potential in innovative targets.
1) Sorafenib: A highly differentiated oral Syk inhibitor, the NDA for immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) has been submitted, expected to become China's first Syk inhibitor; 2) Surufatinib: Advanced pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors were launched domestically in 2020, while the company is actively arranging its combination with PD-1 monoclonal antibodies to tackle pancreatic cancer; 3) In the field of hematological tumors: Two products bring innovative potential: HMPL-306 is a dual IDH1/2 inhibitor, the fastest global treatment for AML (acute myeloid leukemia); Tazemetostat is an introduced product, the first EZH2 inhibitor, aiming at follicular lymphoma.
Risk warning: The progress of innovative drug research and development may fall short of expectations, competition among products may intensify, or sales may be below expectations, posing risks to the company's medium to long-term profitability.