Jinwu Financial News | Domestic housing stocks weakened. As of press release, Ocean Group (03377) fell 3.77%, Rongxin China (03301) fell 3.75%, Longhu Group (00960) fell 2.89%, China Overseas Development (00688) fell 2.24%, and China Resources Land (01109) fell 1.96%.
According to the news, the China Index Research Institute published an article stating that the recovery of new housing sales in 2025 still faces some challenges, such as: residents' income expectations have not been fundamentally reversed, effective supply is insufficient, and the “replacement effect” of the second-hand housing market on new homes. Under a neutral situation, the country's commercial housing sales area is expected to drop 6.3% year on year in 2025. Under optimistic circumstances, if policies such as monetization and resettlement of 1 million urban village renovation and storage capacity are implemented quickly, the national commercial housing sales area may stop falling in 2025. At the same time, stabilizing macroeconomic operations and improving residents' employment and income are also necessary conditions for real estate to stop falling and stabilize. In terms of investment commencement, it is constrained by factors such as shrinking land, capital pressure on housing enterprises, and high market inventory size. Under neutral circumstances, it is expected that the new construction area will drop 15.6% year on year in 2025, and the amount of investment in real estate development will drop 8.7% year on year. The key to “stopping the decline and stabilizing” to promote investment and commencement in 2025 is to revitalize vacant land stocks, increase effective supply in the market, and push the market into a new cycle.
CMB International said a few days ago that although the sales side showed initial recovery, industry inventories are still at historically high levels, and it will still take time to implement some key policies, so the bank believes there are no signs that the fundamentals of the industry have bottomed out.