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Shanghai Belling Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:600171) Stock Is Rallying But Financials Look Ambiguous: Will The Momentum Continue?

Shanghai Belling Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:600171) Stock Is Rallying But Financials Look Ambiguous: Will The Momentum Continue?

上海贝岭公司(SHSE:600171)的股票正在上涨,但财务状况看起来模糊:这一势头会继续吗?
Simply Wall St ·  2024/12/27 15:01

Shanghai Belling (SHSE:600171) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 95% over the last three months. However, we decided to pay attention to the company's fundamentals which don't appear to give a clear sign about the company's financial health. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Shanghai Belling's ROE today.

上海贝岭(SHSE:600171)在股市上表现出色,过去三个月其股票上涨了95%。然而,我们决定关注公司的基本面,这似乎并没有明确表明公司的财务健康状况。特别是,我们今天将关注上海贝岭的ROE。

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

ROE或股本回报率是一个有用的工具,用于评估公司如何有效地利用其股东投入的资金来产生回报。换句话说,它是一个衡量公司股东所提供资本的回报率的盈利能力比率。

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

如何计算股本回报率?

The formula for ROE is:

roe的公式是:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

股东权益回报率 = 净利润(来自持续运营)÷ 股东权益

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Shanghai Belling is:

所以,根据上述公式,上海贝岭的ROE为:

7.3% = CN¥309m ÷ CN¥4.3b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

7.3% = CN¥30900万 ÷ CN¥43亿(基于截至2024年9月的过去十二个月)。

The 'return' is the yearly profit. That means that for every CN¥1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated CN¥0.07 in profit.

“回报”是年度利润。这意味着,对于每1元人民币的股东权益,公司产生了0.07元人民币的利润。

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

ROE为什么对净利润增长很重要?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don't share these attributes.

到目前为止,我们已经了解到ROE衡量的是一家公司产生利润的效率。根据公司选择再投资或“保留”的利润比例,我们能够评估公司未来产生利润的能力。一般来说,在其他条件相同的情况下,具有高股本回报率和利润保留的公司,其增长率高于不具备这些特征的公司。

Shanghai Belling's Earnings Growth And 7.3% ROE

上海贝岭的盈利增长和7.3%的ROE

At first glance, Shanghai Belling's ROE doesn't look very promising. Yet, a closer study shows that the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 6.4%. Having said that, Shanghai Belling's five year net income decline rate was 16%. Remember, the company's ROE is a bit low to begin with. So that's what might be causing earnings growth to shrink.

乍一看,上海贝岭的ROE似乎不太乐观。 然而,深入研究后发现,该公司的ROE与行业平均水平的6.4%相似。 话虽如此,上海贝岭过去五年的净利润下降率为16%。 请记住,该公司的ROE本身就稍低。因此,这可能是导致盈利增长收缩的原因。

That being said, we compared Shanghai Belling's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 14% in the same 5-year period.

尽管如此,我们将上海贝岭的表现与行业进行了比较,当我们发现该公司的盈利有所缩减,而行业在同一五年期间以14%的速度增长其盈利时,我们感到担忧。

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SHSE:600171 Past Earnings Growth December 27th 2024
SHSE:600171 过去的盈利增长 2024年12月27日

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Shanghai Belling is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

为公司附加价值的基础在很大程度上与其盈利增长相关。 投资者接下来需要判断的是,预期的盈利增长或缺乏盈利增长是否已经反映在股价中。 这样做将帮助他们确定股票的未来是否看起来乐观或悲观。 一个良好的预期盈利增长指标是市盈率,它决定了市场愿意为基于盈利前景的股票支付的价格。因此,您可能想检查一下上海贝岭的市盈率相对于其行业是高还是低。

Is Shanghai Belling Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

上海贝岭是否有效地利用了其利润?

When we piece together Shanghai Belling's low three-year median payout ratio of 21% (where it is retaining 79% of its profits), calculated for the last three-year period, we are puzzled by the lack of growth. This typically shouldn't be the case when a company is retaining most of its earnings. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For example, the company's business may be deteriorating.

当我们将上海贝岭过去三年21%的低中位分红比率(公司保留了79%的利润)拼凑在一起时,我们对缺乏增长感到困惑。 当一家公司保留大部分收益时,这通常不应该是情况。 因此,在这方面可能还有其他一些解释。例如,公司的业务可能正在恶化。

Additionally, Shanghai Belling has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth.

此外,上海贝岭在至少十年内支付了分红,这意味着公司管理层决心支付分红,即使这意味着几乎没有盈利增长。

Conclusion

结论

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Shanghai Belling can be open to many interpretations. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. Wrapping up, we would proceed with caution with this company and one way of doing that would be to look at the risk profile of the business. Our risks dashboard would have the 3 risks we have identified for Shanghai Belling.

总体来说,我们认为上海贝岭的表现可以有多种解读。尽管看起来它保留了大部分利润,但考虑到低ROE,投资者可能并没有从所有的再投资中获益。低收益增长表明我们的理论是正确的。总结而言,我们对这家公司将保持谨慎,而其中一种方式是查看该业务的风险概况。我们的风险仪表盘将显示我们为上海贝岭识别出的3个风险。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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