According to the ZhTong Finance APP, GTJA released a research report stating that the negative growth of life insurance premiums in November does not change the growth expectations for the whole year. Health insurance is recovering while accident insurance remains under pressure. The warming of new car sales is driving the improvement in auto insurance growth, while non-auto insurance continues to grow, striving to meet annual targets. In terms of life insurance, current bank deposit rates are still on a downward trend, and the demand for savings insurance products remains strong due to clients' low risk preferences. On the other hand, the reduction in product pricing rates and the all-channel "reporting and operation unification" is expected to drive an increase in value rates, with a steady growth in the NBV of life insurance's opening month in 2025. In terms of property insurance, with the recovery of new car sales and the stabilization of the per vehicle premium, non-auto demand remains robust, and the growth rate of property insurance premiums is expected to remain stable in 2025.

GTJA's main opinions include:

In November, life insurance recorded a negative growth, while health insurance improved month-on-month, but accident insurance demand remains relatively weak.

From January to November, the insurance industry premium income was 5358 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% on a comparable basis (previous value was 6.7%). The cumulative original premium income for the life insurance industry in the same period was 3802.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% on a comparable basis (previous value was 7.0%), including life insurance, health insurance, and accident insurance at 3038.8 billion yuan, 725.6 billion yuan, and 38.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of 16.4%, 6.4%, and -9.6% respectively. The original premium income for life insurance in November was 115.2 billion yuan, down 3.5% year-on-year (previous value was -3.7%). The negative growth for the month is mainly due to insurance companies shifting their business focus towards opening month in 2025, and it is expected that the annual targets for 2024 have basically been achieved; health insurance for the month was 41 billion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year (previous value was 3.4%), and it is expected that some insurance companies will promote health insurance product sales to enhance customer acquisition; accident insurance registered 2.4 billion yuan for the month, down 6.9% year-on-year (previous value was -8.6%), indicating that business demand for accident insurance remains sluggish post-regulation.

From January to November, new investment contributions from policyholders (mainly universal insurance) were 543.8 billion yuan, down 1.8% year-on-year, with November's contribution at 24.1 billion yuan, down 14.6% year-on-year (previous value was -4.7%), which is expected to be mainly impacted negatively by the reduction in the minimum guarantee interest rate of universal insurance; from January to November, the new contributions to the independent accounts of investment-linked insurance were 16.1 billion yuan, up 24.6% year-on-year, with November's new contributions at 1 billion yuan, down 0.8% year-on-year (previous value was -73.5%), indicating that the appeal of investment insurance products remains relatively weak amid market fluctuations.

The expected improvement in new vehicle sales is the main driver of growth in auto insurance, while non-auto insurance strives to meet annual targets.

From January to November, the original premium income of property insurance reached 1555.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% (previous value was 5.7%). Among this, the original premium income from Autos and non-Autos was 818.1 billion yuan and 737.2 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 5.2% (previous value was 4.8%) and 8.7% (previous value was 8.8%). In November, the original premium income of property insurance was 122 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8% (previous value was 20.7%). Among this, the original premium income from Autos was 80.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4% (previous value was 18.6%). The increase in insured vehicles is expected to be the main factor, mainly driven by subsidy policies that have revived auto consumption (the year-on-year growth in new car sales was 16.6%). The original premium income from non-Autos was 41.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% (previous value was 25.0%). This is expected to be primarily driven by insurance companies rushing to meet annual premium targets, with health insurance, agricultural insurance, and accident insurance as the main driving factors, with year-on-year increases of 42.3%, 14.7%, and 11.8% respectively.

Investment advice: It is expected that the liability side of insurance companies will remain stable, and improved expectations in the equity market will positively impact investment profits. Maintain the industry 'Shareholding'. It is recommended to increase holdings in New China Life Insurance (601336.SH), China Life Insurance (601628.SH), China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH), Ping An Insurance (601318.SH), PICC P&C (02328), and PICC GROUP (01339).

Risk warning: Volatility in the equity market; decline in long-term interest rates; limited sustainability of customer demand.