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Investing in CF Industries Holdings (NYSE:CF) Five Years Ago Would Have Delivered You a 107% Gain

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 27 14:16

If you want to compound wealth in the stock market, you can do so by buying an index fund. But the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. For example, the CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) share price is 83% higher than it was five years ago, which is more than the market average. It's also good to see that the stock is up 6.8% in a year.

So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over half a decade, CF Industries Holdings managed to grow its earnings per share at 25% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 13% over the same period. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

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NYSE:CF Earnings Per Share Growth December 27th 2024

It is of course excellent to see how CF Industries Holdings has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. Take a more thorough look at CF Industries Holdings' financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for CF Industries Holdings the TSR over the last 5 years was 107%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

CF Industries Holdings shareholders are up 9.6% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 16% per year for five years. Maybe the share price is just taking a breather while the business executes on its growth strategy. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - CF Industries Holdings has 2 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.

We will like CF Industries Holdings better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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