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The One-year Decline in Earnings Might Be Taking Its Toll on Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical IndustryLtd (SHSE:600835) Shareholders as Stock Falls 4.2% Over the Past Week

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 27, 2024 19:54

Passive investing in index funds can generate returns that roughly match the overall market. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical Industry Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600835) share price is up 56% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 9.2% (not including dividends). So that should have shareholders smiling. The longer term returns have not been as good, with the stock price only 16% higher than it was three years ago.

While this past week has detracted from the company's one-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over the last twelve months, Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical IndustryLtd actually shrank its EPS by 12%.

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

Unfortunately Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical IndustryLtd's fell 13% over twelve months. So the fundamental metrics don't provide an obvious explanation for the share price gain.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

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SHSE:600835 Earnings and Revenue Growth December 28th 2024

If you are thinking of buying or selling Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical IndustryLtd stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical IndustryLtd's TSR for the last 1 year was 64%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical IndustryLtd shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 64% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 5% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical IndustryLtd you should know about.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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