In the afternoon of the 30th trading, there are three points that need attention:

The Nikkei Average falls back, showing weak movements due to the reaction from last Friday.

The dollar-yen is struggling to fall, while US interest rates remain firm.

The top contributor to the decline is Advantest <6857>, and the second is Fast Retailing <9983>.

The Nikkei Average falls back, showing weak movements due to the reaction from last Friday.

The Nikkei average fell back. It ended the morning trading at 39,979.68 yen, down 301.48 yen (estimated Volume 0.7 billion 58.3 million shares).

Last weekend, the Dow Inc fell by 333.59 dollars to 42,992.21 dollars, while the Nasdaq decreased by 298.33 points to 19,722.03 points. With the year-end and New Year holidays approaching, participant numbers were limited, and China's Index ETF performance was stagnant, alongside political instability in Germany and South Korea affecting investor sentiment, contributing to the declines. Heading towards the new fiscal year's rebalance, particularly the Technology sector saw selling pressure, further pushing down the overall market, remaining subdued throughout the day. Towards the end, the pace of decline lessened.

In contrast to the declining American stock market with major stock indices all dropping, on December 30, the Nikkei average started off at 40,325.78 yen, up 44.62 yen compared to the previous weekend, marking its fourth consecutive rise. Although buying was initially ahead, profit-taking Sell pressure emerged as expected in the form of a reaction to last weekend's significant increase, leading it to turn negative early on. Meanwhile, as the market enters what is effectively 2025, strong buying on dips is expected and awareness of firmness is also present.

Among individual stocks, stocks related to Semiconductors such as DISCO <6146>, Tokyo Electron <8035>, and Advantest <6857> fell, along with Kawasaki Heavy Industries <7012>, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries <7011>, SOFTBANK GROUP CO <9984>, Fast Retailing <9983>, Sanrio <8136>, Socionext <6526>, NISSAN MOTOR CO <7201>, Toyota Motor <7203>, and Fujikura <5803>. Adastria <2685>, which reported an expanded decline in operating profits for the September-November period, and Sumitomo Electric Industries <5802>, which was reported to have abandoned mass production plans for semiconductor materials for EVs, also faced declines. Other stocks such as Ceres <3696>, Symphony Technology <6507>, and Japan Steel Works <5631> had significant drops in their prices.

On the other hand, some financial stocks like Mitsubishi UFJ <8306> and Sumitomo Mitsui <8316>, and Marine Shipping stocks like Mitsui O.S.K. Lines <9104> and NYK Line <9101> performed steadily. Additionally, DeNA <2432>, SHIFT <3697>, and JT <2914> saw increases. Other stocks, such as Weathernews <4825>, which was appreciated for its expanding operating profit rate in the first half, and Marumae <6264>, which was favorably viewed for its smooth revenue recovery in the first quarter, surged, while Nomura Micro Science <6254>, Fixstars <3687>, and Double Standard <3925> also topped the price increase rates.

By industry, Nonferrous Metals, Services, and Electric Appliances fell, while Marine Transportation, Iron & Steel, and Mining rose.

The Nikkei average in the afternoon session is expected to continue experiencing heavy overhead. Declines in high-priced stocks are pushing down the Index ETF, making it likely that profit-taking Sell actions will continue in the afternoon session following the large rise on the 27th. However, attention should be paid to whether it can maintain the psychological threshold around 0.04 million yen at the close.

For 2025, various investment themes are anticipated, including those associated with the Ishiba administration's focus on "Defense," "Regional Revitalization," and domestic demand related to "exit from deflation." Initial attention seems to be focused on the actions of Donald Trump, the next president of the USA, who will take office on January 20. In addition to the German federal elections following Trump’s inauguration, there are also many upcoming events, including the deadline for transitional measures for companies that did not meet the Tokyo Stock Exchange listing standards, the Osaka Expo, and the House of Councillors elections scheduled for July when the term will end.

There is a possibility that stock prices may fall due to statements and policies of Mr. Trump, but the resilience of the American economy and the slight improvement in the Chinese economy could lead to a sense of recovery, boosting the momentum for stock price increases. In particular, defense-related stocks and energy-related stocks, benefiting from the relaxation of environmental regulations, are noteworthy. Additionally, Mr. Trump has made positive statements about Cryptos, and while monitoring the movements of Bitcoin and crypto-related stocks, it will be interesting to see if the Nikkei Average surpasses the high of 42,426 yen set during the trading session in July this year and continues to rise, as we observe the market trends for next year.

The dollar-yen exchange rate is showing signs of stabilizing after a decline, while American interest rates remain strong.

In the Tokyo market on the morning of the 30th, the dollar-yen rate showed signs of stabilizing after a decline. With the Nikkei Stock Average’s losses widening, risk aversion led to yen buying, causing the rate to drop slightly from 157.98 to 157.70. However, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries remained strong, allowing the dollar to maintain its levels in the high 157 yen range.

The trading range so far is as follows: the dollar-yen is between 157.70 yen and 157.98 yen, the euro-yen is between 164.46 yen and 164.76 yen, and the euro-dollar is between 1.0424 dollars and 1.0433 dollars.

■ Stocks to check in the latter half.

Three stocks, including Veritas In Silico <130A> and visumo <303A>, reached the daily limit up.

This includes the temporary limit high (response value).

The top contributor to the decline is Advantest <6857>, and the second is Fast Retailing <9983>.

Economic indicators and remarks by important people

[Economic indicators]

US November wholesale inventory preliminary figures: -0.2% month-on-month (expected: +0.1%, October: +0.1% ← +0.2%).

・USA November advance commodity trade balance: -102.9 billion dollars (forecast -101.2 billion dollars, October -98.3 billion dollars ← -99.1 billion dollars)

Key Person Statements

・Holtzmann, Governor of the Austrian Central Bank

「The timing of the next ECB rate cut may be pushed back」

「Signs of rising energy prices may also trigger a scenario of inflation reigniting through a weaker euro」

< Domestic >

・Japan Exchange Group, year-end general meeting

・ Nothing special