这位长期做空者强调，收益率曲线倒挂的结束和对高科技行业的巨大预期是他这样认为的两个主要原因。Société Générale bear Albert Edwards warned that the end of the inverted yield curve and huge expectations for the high-tech industry may indicate that the US stock carnival is coming to an end.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that in 2024, the US stock market achieved brilliant results, and the benchmark S&P 500 index has risen more than 25% from the beginning of the year to date. Most analysts expect the unstoppable bull market to continue in 2025. But at the same time, Société Générale, Albert Edwards, known for its bearish market and economy, also issued some warnings.
Edwards, a global strategist at Société Générale, said in a research report last week: “Skeptics who are tired of the US stock market exceptionalism can gain strength from some signs. These signs suggest that the carnival is over and it's time to leave the market.”
The long-time shortmaker emphasized that the end of the inverted yield curve and huge expectations for the high-tech industry are the two main reasons he thinks this way.
Edwards said, “The yield curves for US 10-year Treasury bonds and 2-year Treasury bonds have now turned positive, as have the 10-year Treasury and 3-month Treasury yield curves. An inversion of the yield curve may be an early sign of an impending recession, but if the inversion ends, it's like a firing gun is going off.”
The strategist added: “One factor that may 'break' the stock market bubble is a further rise in US bond yields. The last time the price-earnings ratio of US stocks reached such a high level was in 2021, when the 10-year US Treasury yield was 1%. As the 'ice age' inversion of bond/stock correlation is now over, any further increase in yield will present problems for the stock market.”
As for the tech sector, Edwards said, “The US tech industry bears a heavy burden of optimism, and future profit expectations far exceed the reality of backwardness. American tech companies must now live up to this optimism.”
