GF SEC has released a research report stating that DPC DASH (01405) has been given a "Buy" rating, with a fair value of HKD 87.69 per share. The bank estimates the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 4.29, 5.3, and 6.38 billion yuan respectively, and the net income attributable to shareholders to be 0.031, 0.057, and 0.095 billion yuan respectively. Domino's has strong brand power and is still in the growth phase in the China market, rapidly expanding store locations while maintaining same-store sales growth. Compared to peers, there is significant potential for expansion, and the path for future profitability improvement is clear.
The main points of the report are as follows:
Pizza delivery experts, resonating with store expansion and same-store growth.
The company is the exclusive master franchise of Domino's Pizza in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau. As of November 15, 2024, 1,000 stores have been opened in 33 cities. While accelerating store openings, same-store sales have achieved continuous growth for 29 consecutive quarters (as of Q3 2024). Amid the pressure on the dining environment, it is one of the few brands that has achieved countercyclical growth. New cities and stores have performed brilliantly, repeatedly setting global records for Domino's, with total sales exceeding 5 million yuan in the first 30 days of opening in Xi'an, Changsha, Xiamen, and Hefei.
Delivery creates differentiation, strong brand potential.
Domino's is the only pizza brand in China that guarantees delivery within 30 minutes across all sales channels, with high delivery efficiency and generous compensation for delays. Product-wise, the company stabilizes its output through a complete supply chain construction, offering a rich variety of high-quality cost-effective products, and the menu has strong innovative vitality. In terms of branding, Domino's is the leader in the global pizza industry, having been successfully validated in several overseas markets, and with strong brand power, it is expected to achieve rapid development.
The path to improving profitability is clear, and there is still significant space for expansion.
The company continues to optimize the unit economics of its stores, with scale expansion leading to the dilution of various costs and expenses, as well as nonlinear improvements in profitability. In the next two years, the goal is to open 300-350 new stores each year, with a clear objective. The estimate suggests that Domino's will have approximately 3,000 stores in mainland China by 2030, nearly three times the current number of stores.