Goolsbee在12月20日表示，他略微上调了对2025年的利率展望，但仍预计未来12至18个月借贷成本将进一步下降。The Federal Reserve's interest rate setting.the Federal Open Market CommitteeNext year, the FOMC will rotate four new voting members, three of whom are considered hawkish.
According to the Smart Finance App, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) that sets interest rates for the Federal Reserve will rotate four new voting members next year, three of whom are seen as hawkish. The new voting members in 2025 will include Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid.
According to a report by InTouch Capital Markets, Goolsbee is the only dove among the four. The firm lists Collins and Musalem as mildly hawkish, while Schmid is categorized as moderately hawkish.
Goolsbee stated on December 20 that he slightly raised his 2025 interest rate outlook but still expects borrowing costs to decline further over the next 12 to 18 months.
He stated, "My forecast for the interest rate path in 2025 has become shallower, but I have always said that the overall trend is a significant decline in inflation. I believe we are moving towards the 2% target, and interest rates will continue to decline significantly over the next 12-18 months. Whether it's three months earlier or three months later, I don't think that's the most important thing."
The latest "Summary of Economic Projections" (SEP) released by the FOMC on December 18 shows that committee members expect the pace of interest rate cuts to slow down next year and beyond due to persistently high inflation.
Given that the benchmark federal funds rate is between 4.25% and 4.5% at the end of this year, the latest SEP median forecast indicates a 50 basis point cut in 2025, down from the previously expected 100 basis points.
The median policy rate is expected to drop to 3.4% and 3.1% in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Meanwhile, the FOMC expects that the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) will reach 2.5% by the end of 2025, and then decline to 2.2% and 2% in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Additionally, by 2027, the unemployment rate in the USA is expected to reach 4.3%.
