11月碳酸锂期现价差基本持平。11月29日，广期所碳酸锂主力合约收盘价为7.8万元/吨，环比上涨7.0%，比去年同期下降31.3%，环比涨幅与碳酸锂现货涨幅相当，月末期现价差为2450元/吨。The effects of the trade-in policy have become apparent, and the production and sales of Batteries and Electric Vehicles continue to grow rapidly.
智通财经APP获悉，中国有色金属工业协会发布2024年11月锂行业运行情况。11月，受下游正极材料需求旺盛提振影响，锂辉石提锂企业部分排产增加；受季节影响，盐湖提锂产量有所下降。国内碳酸锂价格略有回升。11月29日，工业级碳酸锂价格为0.075 million元/吨，环比上涨6.4%，比去年同期下降34.4%；电池级碳酸锂价格为0.078 million元/吨，环比上涨7.6%，比去年同期下降37.2%。需求端，以旧换新政策加码效果明显，电池与新能源车产销量保持高速增长态势。
一、锂产品价格
11月碳酸锂期现价差基本持平。11月29日，广期所碳酸锂主力合约收盘价为0.078 million元/吨，环比上涨7.0%，比去年同期下降31.3%，环比涨幅与碳酸锂现货涨幅相当，月末期现价差为2450元/吨。
图 1 11月碳酸锂期现价格(万元/吨)
2024年11月，国内氢氧化锂价格基本持平。11月29日，粗颗粒氢氧化锂价格为0.0685 million元/吨，环比持平，比去年同期下降42.2%。
Figure 2 Lithium Hydroxide Prices in November (Ten Thousand Yuan/Ton)
II. Supply of Lithium Products
On the supply side, in November, due to strong downstream demand for Cathode Material, some Lithium Extraction from Salt Lakes enterprises increased their production. Additionally, the increase in lithium prices has somewhat restored profits for these enterprises; however, production of Lithium Extraction from Salt Lakes has decreased due to seasonal factors. In November, China's lithium salt production slightly rebounded compared to the previous month. According to statistics from the Lithium Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in November 2024, the national output of lithium carbonate was approximately 0.06 million tons, an increase of 7.1% month-on-month; the national output of lithium hydroxide was approximately 0.031 million tons, an increase of 3.2% month-on-month; the national output of lithium chloride was approximately 1727 tons, a decrease of 0.6% month-on-month; the national output of lithium metal was approximately 315 tons, a decrease of 0.6% month-on-month. In November, the total output of lithium salts in the country was equivalent to approximately 0.091 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), an increase of 5.6% month-on-month.
Table 1 Lithium Salt Production in China for November 2024
The concentration of lithium salt production is relatively high. In November 2024, the top three provinces (regions) in China for lithium carbonate production were Jiangxi, Qinghai, and SiChuan, with outputs of 0.025 million tons, 0.011 million tons, and 0.012 million tons, respectively.
Figure 3: Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide production (tons) in China by province (region) in November.
III. Lithium product import and export.
In November 2024, China's imported lithium concentrate increased month-on-month, while imports of lithium concentrate from Australia decreased month-on-month; imports of lithium carbonate declined compared to October, with imports from Chile decreasing month-on-month. In terms of imports, China's imported lithium concentrate in November was 0.446 million tons, an increase of 0.7% month-on-month and an increase of 23.9% year-on-year. From January to November, China had accumulated imports of lithium concentrate totaling 4.79 million tons, an increase of 23.2% year-on-year. In November, imports of lithium concentrate from Australia decreased by 21% compared to October, accounting for 67% of the month's imports of lithium concentrate.
Figure 4: China's imported lithium concentrate volume (tons) from January to November.
In November, China imported 0.019 million tons of lithium carbonate, a decrease of 17.1% month-on-month, with an average import price of 0.068 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5% month-on-month. Of this, approximately 0.012 million tons were imported from Chile, a decrease of 31.8% month-on-month, accounting for about 63%. According to Chilean customs data, it is estimated that imports of lithium carbonate from Chile in December will be around 0.016 million tons.
Figure 5: China's lithium carbonate import volume and the proportion from Chile from January to November.
In November, China exported 0.005 million tons of lithium hydroxide, down 29.8% month-on-month, with the main export countries being South Korea and Japan. The average export price of lithium hydroxide in November was 0.091 million yuan per ton, up 1.7% month-on-month.
Figure 6: From January to November, China's lithium hydroxide export volume and the share of South Korea and Japan.
Table 2: Import and export volumes of lithium products from January to November 2024 (tons).
IV. Demand for lithium products.
On the demand side, the effects of the trade-in policy are becoming evident, with rapid growth in the production and sales of batteries and Electric Vehicles in November. The output and installation of power batteries continued to rise, while sales of Electric Vehicles increased month-on-month.
In terms of batteries, the production of power batteries and energy storage batteries in November reached 118GWh, up 4.2% month-on-month and 33.3% year-on-year. Among these, the production of power and energy storage batteries using ternary materials was 24.2 GWh, while those using lithium iron phosphate reached 93.4 GWh. The installation of power batteries in November was 67.2GWh, a month-on-month increase of 13.5% and a year-on-year increase of 49.7%. Among these, the installation volume of ternary materials was 13.6GWh and that of lithium iron phosphate was 53.6GWh.
Figure 7: Power Battery and Energy Storage Battery Production in the Past Year (MWh)
Figure 8: Power Battery Loading Volume in the Past Year (MWh)
In the Electric Vehicles sector, the production of Electric Vehicles in November was 1.57 million units, a month-on-month increase of 7.1% and a year-on-year increase of 45.8%; the sales volume of Electric Vehicles was 1.51 million units, a month-on-month increase of 5.7% and a year-on-year increase of 47.4%.
Figure 9: Electric Vehicle Production and Year-on-Year Growth Rate in the Past Year (Units, %)
Figure 10 shows the sales volume and year-on-year growth rate of Electric Vehicles over the past year (units, %).
V. Industry Highlights
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Increase support for mineral exploration of lithium, cobalt, nickel and other resources in China.
On November 6th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology publicly solicited opinions on the Action Plan for the High-Quality Development of the New Energy Storage Manufacturing Industry (Draft for Comments). The draft proposes to increase the support for mineral exploration of lithium, cobalt, nickel and other resources in China, scientifically and orderly allocate mining rights, and enhance the domestic resource assurance capacity. It guides domestic enterprises to diversify, orderly, and collaboratively layout overseas resource projects, lowering the costs of resource development and transportation. Under the premise of risk prevention, it supports enterprises in strengthening foreign investment cooperation to improve the supply capacity of overseas mineral development. It encourages production companies to manage the entire product lifecycle well during the R&D stage of new energy storage products. Strengthening the green design of products enhances their recyclability and usability. While meeting product performance requirements, it supports production enterprises in using recycled materials.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology publicly solicits opinions on the 'Action Plan for the High-Quality Development of the New Energy Storage Manufacturing Industry.'
On November 6th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology publicly solicited opinions on the 'Action Plan for the High-Quality Development of the New Energy Storage Manufacturing Industry (Draft for Comments).' The plan proposes that by 2027, the scale of the new energy storage manufacturing industry and downstream demand will be basically matched, cultivating 3-5 eco-dominant enterprises with a scale of over 100 billion yuan. It promotes the new energy storage manufacturing industry to better meet the application needs of power, industry, energy, transportation, construction, communication, agriculture and other fields.
The plan points out the need to develop diversified new energy storage Ontology technologies, accelerate the iteration and upgrading of mature technologies such as Lithium Battery and Supercapacitors, support disruptive technological innovation, and enhance the supply capacity of high-end products. It promotes engineering and application technology breakthroughs in sodium batteries, flow batteries, and others. It develops compressed air and other long-duration energy storage technologies, accelerating improvements in technical economics and system energy conversion efficiency. It appropriately lays out hydrogen storage and other ultra-long-duration energy storage technologies ahead of time, encourages the exploration and development of various types of hybrid storage technologies based on application needs, and supports basic research on forward-looking technologies such as new system batteries and thermal energy storage.
The plan proposes scientifically planning the industrial layout. It encourages energy storage battery and key materials enterprises to gather in areas rich in renewable energy, abundant mineral resources, convenient transportation conditions, complete infrastructure, and diverse application scenarios. It supports the CNI Yangtze Index, JING-JIN-JI, South China Greater Bay Area Concept, Chengdu-Chongqing area and other regions to focus on the field of new energy storage and cultivate advanced manufacturing industry clusters. At the same time, it guides regions to scientifically and orderly layout new energy storage manufacturing projects, relying on research institutions for industry operation monitoring and early warning to prevent low-level repeated construction.
The Ministry of Commerce responds to the progress of price commitment negotiations in the EU-China electric Autos anti-subsidy case.
On November 28, spokesperson He Yadong of the Ministry of Commerce stated that China has always advocated resolving trade disputes through dialogue and consultation, and has been making maximum efforts to negotiate price commitments regarding the EU's electric vehicle anti-subsidy case. It is hoped that the EU will take practical actions soon to jointly promote consultations with China. Proper handling of the EU's anti-subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles is the general expectation of all sectors in China and Europe. According to the consensus reached by both parties, the technical teams of China and Europe have conducted intensive consultations on price commitment solutions, and after hard work, certain progress has been made. Consultations are still ongoing. He Yadong expressed that China hopes both sides will move towards each other, follow the principles of 'pragmatism and balance', take into account each other's reasonable concerns, respond to expectations from both China and Europe, and work together to achieve fruitful results from the consultations.
