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民生证券:11月汽车产销稳健增长 新能源车市场同比增速超45%

Minsheng Securities: In November, the production and sales of Autos showed stable growth, with the market for Electric Vehicles experiencing a year-on-year growth rate of over 45%.

Zhitong Finance ·  Dec 30, 2024 08:47

In November, the retail sales volume of Electric Vehicles reached 1.268 million units, a year-on-year increase of 50.5% and a month-on-month increase of 5.9%; the retail penetration rate was 52.3%, up 11.9 percentage points year-on-year. At the automaker level, the production and sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrid Autos saw significant growth year-on-year, indicating a positive industry trend.

智通财经APP获悉,民生证券发布研报称,11月汽车产销分别为3.437 million和331.6万辆,同比分别增长11.1%和11.7%,环比分别增长14.7%和8.6%。11月新能源乘用车批发销量达到1.438 million辆,同比增长49.6%,环比增长4.9%;11月批发渗透率48.9%,同比增加11pcts。11月新能源车市场零售销量1.268 million辆,同比增长50.5%,环比增长5.9%;11月零售渗透率52.3%,同比提升11.9pcts。车企层面,纯电动与插电混动汽车产销量同比大幅增长,行业趋势向好。比亚迪(01211)销量领跑,新势力车企理想(02015)、零跑(09863)、问界等稳步前进。

动力电池市场持续增长,市场集中度高

产量层面,11月我国动力和其他电池合计产量为117.8GWh,环比增长4.2%,同比增长33.3%。装车量层面,11月我国动力电池装车量67.2GWh,环比增长13.5%,同比增长49.7%。技术路线层面,三元电池累计装车量124.7GWh,占总装车量26.4%,累计同比增长13.7%;磷酸铁锂电池累计装车量348.0GWh,占总装车量73.6%,累计同比增长51.5%。企业层面,宁德时代位居24年11月装车量的TOP1,比亚迪位居24年11月装车量的TOP2。2024年11月份TOP15企业装车量合计为66.37GWh,累计市场占比总额高达98.79%,市场集中度高。

Charging facilities and Electric Vehicles are growing in synergy, strongly supporting the development of the Industry.

24年1-11月充电基础设施增量为3.756 million台,新能源汽车国内销量10.121 million辆,充电基础设施与新能源汽车继续快速增长,桩车增量比为1:2.7。截至24年11月,联盟内成员单位总计上报公共充电桩3.46 million台,其中直流充电桩1.575 million台、交流充电桩1.885 million台。基于EVCIPA公开数据可知,24年11月广东省公共充电桩总量仍位列全国第一,保有量高达652994台。11月全国公共充电桩充电电量主要集中在广东、河北、江苏、四川、浙江、山东、山西、河南、上海、福建等省份。

24年11月全国充电总电量约5.2 billion度,较上月增加0.2 billion度,同比增长46.6%,环比增加4.0%。24年11月份全国换电站保有量达4193座,较24年10月增加了154座。截至24年11月,全国充电基础设施累计数量为12.352 million台,同比增长49.5%。

Investment Suggestions

1) The long-term competitive landscape is favorable, and there are marginal changes in the short term. Key recommendations: a) Battery: Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ); b) Separator: Yunnan Energy New Material (002812.SZ); c) Thermal Management: Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050.SZ); d) High Voltage Direct Current: Hongfa Technology (600885.SH); e) Film Capacitors: Xiamen Faratronic (600563.SH), and suggest paying attention to Hunan Zhongke Electric (301031.SZ) and others.

2) The 4680 technology iteration drives the upgrade of the Industry Chain. The 4680 can currently achieve 210Wh/kg, and if high nickel 91 series and silicon-carbon anodes are used in the future, the system's energy density may approach 270Wh/kg, effectively addressing the thermal management issue of high nickel systems. Key focuses: a) Large cylindrical shells: Shenzhen Kedali Industry (002850.SZ), Suzhou SLAC Precision Equipment (300382.SZ) and other structural component symbols; b) High nickel cathodes: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology (688005.SH), Beijing Easpring Material Technology (300073.SZ), Fangyuan Co., Ltd. (688148.SH), Changyuan Lithium Tech (688779.SH), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH), Zhenhua New Material (688707.SH), CNGR Advanced Material (300919.SZ), GEM Co.,Ltd. (002340.SZ); c) LIFSI layout: Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology (002709.SZ), Shenzhen Capchem Technology (300037.SZ), and relevant symbols in the carbon nanotube field.

3) Bullish on the high prosperity Industry Chain links that still have tight supply and demand in a 2-3 year dimension. Key focuses: a) Separator: Yunnan Energy New Material, Shenzhen Senior Technology Material (300568.SZ), Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic (002108.SZ), Sinoma Science & Technology (002080.SZ); b) Copper Foil: Nuode New Materials (600110.SH), Guangdong Jiayuan Technology (688388.SH), Far East Smarter Energy (600869.SH); c) Anode: Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology (603659.SH), Hunan Zhongke Electric (300035.SZ), Ningbo Shanshan (600884.SH), Betterray (835185.BJ), Shenzhen XFH Technology (300890.SZ), etc.

4) New technologies bring significant marginal elasticity changes. Suggested focuses: a) Sodium-ion Batteries: Jiangsu Transimage Technology (002866.SZ), Veken Technology.,Ltd. (600152.SH), Fujian Yuanli Active Carbon (300174.SZ), Jiangsu Fengshan Group (603810.SH); b) Composite current collectors: Shenzhen Baoming Technology (002992.SZ), Dongwei Technology (688700.SH), Yuanchen Technology (688659.SH).

Risk Warning: 1) Upstream raw materials rise beyond expectations. 2) Terminal demand falls short of expectations.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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