Upstream raw material prices remain high, and with weak demand, raw material procurement will become cautious. In the short term, both antimony supply and demand are weak, and prices are under pressure while running. Keep an eye on the pre-holiday inventory replenishment situation.
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Huafu Securities has released a Research Report stating that in November, the import of antimony concentrate from Tajikistan increased by 2,841 tons month-on-month, while ShanDong's import of gold-antimony ore from Russia rose by 0.0225 million tons, indicating sufficient supply at the mining end. On the production side, due to previous demand being released ahead of schedule, major factories have completed sales performance, and with more maintenance plans, antimony ingot production continues to decline; antimony oxide production remains stable, and supply is sufficient. On the demand side, affected by export policies for antimony-related products, antimony ingot exports are restricted and antimony oxide exports are at a low level; considering the current trade environment, it is relatively difficult to relax export policies in the short term, compounded by downstream demand performing below expectations, leading to an overall weakening of market sentiment.
Antimony ore: 1) Single antimony ore: 5,723 tons imported in November, +3,108 tons/+118.8% month-on-month, +4,500 tons/+368% year-on-year; cumulative import from January to November is 49,117 tons, +16,455 tons/+50.4% year-on-year. 2) Gold-antimony ore: ShanDong imported 31,414 tons from Russia in November, +253.2% month-on-month, +531.3% year-on-year; cumulative import from January to November is 114,094 tons, -3.1% year-on-year.
Antimony ingots: 1) Production: November production is 6,775 tons, +4.59% month-on-month, -2.5% year-on-year; cumulative production from January to November is 70,969 tons, -9.3% year-on-year. 2) Exports: 0 tons exported in November, -100% year-on-year; cumulative export from January to November is 3,834 tons, -1,027 tons/-21.1% year-on-year.
Antimony oxide: 1) Production: November production is 9,350 tons, -0.3% month-on-month, -3% year-on-year; cumulative production from January to November is 96,735 tons, -6.5% year-on-year. 2) Exports: 776 tons exported in November, +734 tons/+1747.6% month-on-month, -2011 tons/-72.2% year-on-year; cumulative export from January to November is 28,850 tons, -4,094 tons/-12.4% year-on-year.
Downstream demand: 1) Sodium antimonate: November production is 2,284 tons, -5.2% month-on-month, -48.1% year-on-year; cumulative production from January to November is 34,867 tons. 2) Photovoltaic Glass: November production is 2.021 million tons, -1% month-on-month, -6.5% year-on-year; cumulative production from January to November is 25.32 million tons, +35.7% year-on-year.
Investment Suggestions
Huafu Securities believes that overall, raw material prices remain high, and with weak demand, raw material procurement will become cautious. In the short term, both supply and demand for antimony are weak, putting pressure on prices and running under strain. Attention should be paid to the replenishment situation before the holiday. It is recommended to focus on Hunan Gold Corporation (002155.SZ), driven by both gold and antimony, Guangxi Huaxi Nonferrous Metal (600301.SH), a leader in tin/antimony resources, and Tibet Huayu Mining (601020.SH), which has increasing production capacity.
Risk Warning
Downstream demand is below expectations, the increase in Russian antimony ore imports exceeds expectations, and export controls are greater than expected.
