印度央行新任行长Sanjay Malhotra尚未就外汇策略发表评论，该行之前以坚定干预外汇市场著称。 A key indicator measuring the volatility of the Indian Rupee has surged to its highest level in over a year, leading the market to speculate that the Reserve Bank of India may relax its strict controls on the Rupee amid a strengthening US Dollar.
On Monday, the implied volatility of the Rupee against the US Dollar for a one-month period rose to 4.09%, the highest level since August 2023. This marks a change in the recent stability of the Rupee, which had seen its volatility indicator reach historical lows in August of this year. Traders indicated that this spike suggests a potential shift in the strategy of the Reserve Bank of India.
"We believe that given the various risks associated with low volatility, such as complacency in domestic hedging activities, the Reserve Bank of India may actually allow a moderate increase in volatility," said Mitul Kotecha, head of Forex and Emerging Markets Macro Strategy at Barclays. Additionally, "Restricting Rupee volatility means that adjustments in the currency won't happen as quickly and could ultimately lead to larger fluctuations."
The new governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Sanjay Malhotra, has not yet commented on Forex strategy, as the institution was previously known for its firm interventions in the Forex market.
Last Friday, the Rupee against the US Dollar fell by 0.7%, marking a historic low and recording its worst performance in a week since March.
However, the Rupee remains one of the low-volatility currencies, having depreciated by 2.7% against the US Dollar so far in 2024, which is better than most of its Asian counterparts.
