美国国家气象局在最新的8-14天预测中预计，美国东部和中西部地区出现比正常更冷天气的可能性更高。这将与此前该国大部分地区在秋季和初冬经历的相对温和天气形成明显反差。On Monday during Regular Trading Hours, the NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures February contract saw its intraday increase expand to 21%, reporting at $4.094 per million British thermal units. This is the largest increase for this contract since it began trading in 2012. Analysis suggests that higher natural gas prices may have macroeconomic implications, which could drive up inflation rates, while severe cold may also suppress Consumer spending in the USA.
During Regular Trading Hours on Monday, the NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures February contract saw an intraday increase of up to 21%, reaching $4.094 per million British thermal units. This is the largest increase since the contract began trading in 2012. The most actively traded futures prices have surged to the highest level in nearly a year.
The price of USA Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures soared due to a forecast for colder weather in January next year, which raised the demand outlook for fuels used in heating and electricity generation.
The USA National Weather Service in its latest 8-14 day forecast indicates a higher likelihood of colder weather in the eastern and midwestern USA. This will contrast significantly with the relatively mild weather experienced in much of the country during autumn and early winter.
Various models predict that during the second week of January, half of the eastern USA will experience cold weather. The peak of the cold is expected around January 12, and some models indicate that low temperatures may last longer. If the cold wave materializes, USA's natural gas demand is expected to hit an all-time high.
Meanwhile, Texas and the Marcellus region may see some oil wells shut down due to freezing at the wellhead, further impacting supply.
In addition, the export of liquefied natural gas requires additional consumption, which means that overall demand will continue to increase in the coming period.
BOK Financial Energy trader and Analyst Dennis Kissler wrote in a report on Monday that the sudden drop in temperatures has triggered a "buying spree" for natural gas.
Stephen Roseme, managing partner of Bridgeton Research, which tracks trading activity, stated that Funds using algorithmic trading strategies have also changed their risk positions from neutral to net long.
There are also analyses suggesting that higher natural gas prices could have macroeconomic impacts, which would increase inflation rates, while the severe cold could suppress Consumer spending in the USA.
