On December 31, the central price of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1884, an increase of 5 points.
The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January next year is 88.8%
CME “Federal Reserve Watch”: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in January next year is 88.8%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 11.2%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by March next year is 46.2%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 48.4%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 5.4%.
Wells Fargo expects the Fed to cut interest rates only once next year
Investors' focus at the end of the year included the outlook for the US economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trend in 2025. The US Federal Reserve meeting earlier this month suggested that the number of future interest rate cuts may be less than previously anticipated by the market. Brian Rehling, head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Research Institute, pointed out that the Fed's interest rate cut cycle is nearing its end, and it is expected that there may be only one additional rate cut next year. This judgment is based on the current background of strong US economic performance and continued stubborn inflation.
Although the Federal Reserve has recently begun to cut interest rates, long-term interest rates have continued to rise, reflecting the weakening of market expectations for further central bank action. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market currently anticipates that the first rate cut may take place in May 2025.
