消息方面，山西证券指出，临近年底，煤矿生产一般。需求方面，数九寒天延续，居民用电需求下终端煤电负荷维持高位，电煤需求较强。① What is the expected coal production for this year? ② How do you see the trend of coal prices going forward?
According to Caixin News on December 31 (Editor Hu Jiarong), today Hong Kong stocks continue to fluctuate, but coal industrial concept stocks remain active. As of the time of writing, JINMA ENERGY (06885.HK), MONGOLIA ENERGY (00276.HK), China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK), and China Coal Energy (01898.HK) have increased by 18.97%, 3.39%, 2.61%, and 1.88% respectively.
Note: Performance of coal mining stocks.
In terms of news, Shanxi points out that as the end of the year approaches, coal mine production is generally average. On the demand side, the cold winter continues, household electricity demand remains high, and terminal coal power load is maintained at a high level, resulting in strong demand for power coal.
Furthermore, the China Mining Association stated yesterday that the development of important mineral resources in our country will reach a new high in 2024. The secretary-general of the China Mining Association, Che Changbo, introduced that national coal production has continued to grow this year, with a cumulative production of 4.322 billion tons from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, and the annual production is expected to reach 4.76 billion tons.
Institutions indicate that coal prices have decreased and entered a reasonable range, and coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound.
Shanxi points out that coal prices have entered a reasonable price range, with reduced port inflows and northern port coal inflows being less than outflows, while inventories in northern ports continue to decrease; after entering a reasonable price range, downstream replenishment demand has increased, causing coal prices at ports downstream of the Yangtze River to rebound, with CNI Bohai Index port coal prices stabilizing.
Sealand shares a similar view, stating that under improved supply and demand conditions, coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound. From a broader perspective, the investment logic in the Industry remains unchanged, and it is anticipated that in the coming years, the coal industry will continue to maintain a tight balance state; the quality of Assets in the coal industry is high, with abundant cash flow on hand, and coal listed companies continue to exhibit the five high characteristics of "high profitability, high cash flow, high barriers, high dividends, and high safety margins."
In addition, Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that the pessimistic sentiment regarding short-term Coal prices is expected to ease, and subsequent changes in policy and fundamentals are likely to promote a halt in the decline of Coal prices, or even stabilize and rebound.
