Pre-Market Market Trends

On December 31 (Tuesday) in Pre-Market Trading, the three major U.S. stock index futures all rose. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were up 0.28%, S&P 500 index futures were up 0.34%, and Nasdaq futures were up 0.43%.

As of the time of writing, the DEGUODAXZHISHU fell by 0.38%, the UK FTSE100 Index rose by 0.66%, the France CAC40 Index rose by 0.68%, and the Europe Stoxx 50 Index rose by 0.84%.

As of the publication time, WTI Crude Oil has risen by 0.80%, trading at $71.56 per barrel. Brent Crude Oil has increased by 0.73%, trading at $74.53 per barrel.

Market News

Trading Tip: Due to the New Year's Day holiday, the US stock market will be closed on January 1st. January 1, 2025 (Wednesday) is New Year's Day holiday, the US stock market will be closed for one day. Normal trading will resume on January 2, 2025 (Thursday).

Federal Reserve's Daly: Cryptos should be considered independent assets and not mixed up with Gold. San Francisco Fed President Daly stated that cryptos "can be a currency. It may be a medium of exchange... it can be Stocks—a store of value or sometimes a depreciating asset. We just need to define these terms. So I don’t think it is Gold. It has some properties like Gold at times, but I don't see it that way." Daly's assessment slightly differs from Fed Chair Powell, who stated earlier this month: "People view Bitcoin as a speculative asset. It's like Gold, only it’s virtual, it’s digital. People do not consider it a medium of payment or a store of value. It’s extremely volatile. It’s not a competitor to the dollar; it’s a true competitor to Gold."

Senior investors warn: Hurry and sell the "seven giants", the US stock market is about to drop by 10%. Max Wasserman, Senior Portfolio Manager at Miramar Capital, stated that investors should reduce their positions in the US stock market's "seven giants" and reallocate capital to "safer, lower valuation dividend growth stocks" to lower portfolio risks in 2025. He predicts that the overall stock market will soon fall by 10%, leading to a decline in the "seven giants". He pointed out that the risk-reward ratio for large cap stocks is currently asymmetric. Additionally, Wasserman suggests maintaining short-term investments in the bond market. "We see the yield on 10-year US Treasuries fluctuating above 5%, and possibly even higher."

The disruptive truth of the market: the steepening yield curve is indeed a "unique bullish factor" for the seven giants of the US stock market. Wall Street's top investment firm, 22V Research, stated that the overall steepening of the yield curve of US Treasuries across various time frames represents a powerful tailwind for the "seven technology giants" in the US stock market. However, the firm indicated that if the steepening pace of the US Treasury yield curve slows significantly or shifts from steep to flat, the performance of these seven giants and other large tech stocks will also face downward adjustments. Therefore, in the perspective of the strategist team at 22V Research, a shift from the recent stagnation or flattening of the US Treasury yield curve to a positively steep gradient may indicate that the "seven technology giants", which account for a high weight (30%-40%) in the S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ 100 Index, will commence a new phase of upward momentum.

史上首次!美国ETF资产规模突破10 trillion美元大关。根据Cerulli Associates的最新数据，美国交易所交易基金(ETF)在11月的资产规模首次突破10 trillion美元。本月ETF资金流入量达到156 billion美元，刷新了单月流入记录。Cerulli指出，这种活跃度与年底通常出现的交易高峰相当。Morningstar的研究表明，这一增长受到“特朗普效应”(Trump bump)的推动，美国基金(包括ETF和Mutual funds)在11月吸引了115 billion美元资金流入，这是自2021年4月以来的最高纪录。

Next year, major banks in the USA are expected to have a "harvest" year, with every business set to "flourish"? As the Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts may slow next year, a steeper yield curve will continue to support banks' net interest margin earnings. Visible Alpha's survey of analysts also indicates that revenues across all departments of the world's top banks (excluding FICC trading) are expected to see their first growth since 2021 next year. Furthermore, as of early December, the yield on three-month US Treasury bills fell below the yield on 10-year US Treasuries for the first time since 2022, which may soon spark new enthusiasm for fixed income products. Additionally, some analysts suggest that Trump, who will take office next year, is likely to ease regulatory scrutiny on the financial sector, potentially bringing favorable conditions for the banking industry.

特朗普重返白宫恐带来新变数，原油看涨押注升至四个月高点。随着投资者为特朗普重返白宫的新一年做好准备，看涨原油的押注达到了四个月来的最高点。根据美国商品Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)'s latest data shows that investors are significantly reducing their net short positions in US soybean, corn, and wheat contracts, easing bearish sentiment in the market.According to the committee's data, in the week ending December 24, Fund managers increased their net long positions in WTI Crude Oil by 21,694 contracts, reaching 182,895 contracts. During that week, Crude Oil Futures fluctuated in a Range of less than $3, indicating that the increase in long positions was due to changes in long-term holdings rather than short-term price reactions.

Stock News

Tesla's (TSLA.US) Shanghai energy storage super factory has begun trial production. Tesla's Shanghai energy storage super factory project has officially started trial production, with plans for full-scale production early next year. It is reported that the factory successfully passed completion acceptance on December 27, taking only seven months from the start in May to completion, setting a new record for "Tesla speed". After production begins, the factory will have an output of ultra-large energy storage batteries called Megapack up to 0.01 million units, with a storage capacity of nearly 40 GWh (1 GWh = 1000 MWh). Additionally, Tesla will recall some Chinese-made Model 3 and Model Y electric vehicles, totaling 77,650 units, as well as 63 imported Model S and Model X vehicles. Furthermore, Tesla will announce fourth-quarter delivery data this Thursday. Analysts predict that the delivery volume will be about 0.51 million units, slightly below the company's target of 0.515 million units.

Apple's (AAPL.US) streaming platform Apple TV will be free to use this weekend. Apple has announced that its streaming service, Apple TV, will be offered for free from January 4 to January 5, 2025. Apple TV is part of the company's services sector, which saw record revenue in the fourth fiscal quarter ending September 2024. Revenue from the services sector grew by approximately 11.9% year-on-year to 24.97 billion dollars, although this was below analyst expectations of 25.27 billion dollars. The services sector also includes App Store, Apple Music, Apple Pay, iCloud, and Apple TV+.

Technical analysis.Are there emerging concerns about NVIDIA (NVDA.US) stock price? The pattern resembles that of the 60% drop in 2018. Financial Analyst Paul Franke claims that from a technical analysis perspective, NVIDIA may face a significant decline in the near future. The analyst believes that the company also faces substantial operational risks from cyclical semiconductor demand, potential Trump tariffs, and future competition, especially from Alphabet's newly launched AI-related Willow quantum chips.

旗舰产品需求超预期，亿航智能(EH.US)上调Q4和全年营收预期。亿航智能预计第四季度收入将达到0.162 billion元人民币，相比指导目标0.135 billion元人民币增长20%，同比增长187%。在2024财年，该公司预计总收入将达到人民币0.454 billion元，比之前预期的人民币0.427 billion元增长6%，同比增长287%。这一业绩的上升反映了市场对亿航旗舰产品EH216-S无人驾驶载客飞行器的需求强于预期、凸显出公司业务的增长势头，是关键的运营里程碑。该股盘前上涨近7%。

香港钢结构承建商一建筑集团(ONEG.US)今晚上市，IPO定价4美元/股。来自香港的一建筑集团有限公司宣布首次公开发行1.75 million股股票，发行价为每股4美元。承销商将有45天的选择权，最多可购买普通股总数的15%。该公司的普通股预计将于2024年12月31日在纳斯达克资本市场开始交易。

Important economic data and event forecasts.

北京时间次日凌晨05:30 美国截至12月27日当周API原油库存变动(万桶)、美国截至12月27日当周API汽油库存变动(万桶)