With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 18.8x Olam Group Limited (SGX:VC2) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Singapore have P/E ratios under 11x and even P/E's lower than 7x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

Olam Group has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings at a solid pace. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this respectable earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Olam Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 21% gain to the company's bottom line. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen a very unpleasant 24% drop in EPS in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 7.7% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Olam Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Olam Group revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You always need to take note of risks, for example - Olam Group has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Olam Group. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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