Below is a comment written by FISCO Social Reporter, individual investor IPO Kim (author of the blog “If it's an IPO initial price prediction blog, Kim's IPO investment diary”). FISCO is working to disseminate more diverse information to investors by cooperating with individuals who actively disseminate information.
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※Written on 2024/12/21 at 15:00
Happy new year. My name is IPO Kim, who is particular about IPOs and invests all year round. Until now, it has been said that IPOs are “profitable,” but there are changes in the situation.
A “review of the public price setting process for IPOs” was carried out in 2023/10, and IPO investment has been sluggish for over a year since then. Personally, I'm not disappointed. Until now, it was said that if you win the IPO once, you can expect a profit of about 0.1 million yen, but now it has fallen to 0.02 million yen to 0.03 million yen.
The reason is also related to the expansion of listing size due to rule reviews. There is also a relationship between listing schedules and content where public prices are set outside the scope of provisional conditions. Reviewing the rules may be unavoidable, but motivation has declined. Obviously, there is no money for the IPO and there is no excitement.
However, there were also stocks that would be exciting when it was a big IPO in 2024. < 215A>< 9023>Trial Holdings ＜141A＞, Timey, Tokyo Metro, etc. are fully funded at initial prices. Individual stocks were excited to some extent until 2024/3, but after that, performance declined and it became difficult to exceed 1.5 times the public price.
Furthermore, stocks that break open prices are now commonly seen, and I think IPOs have completely changed from the past when they were said to be “profitable.” If this situation continues in 2025, the number of investors leaving the IPO is likely to increase.
Conversely, there are a few good things. The listing size has increased and it has become slightly easier to win an IPO. I think the number of public shares has increased and the chances of winning the election have increased.
Among those who are aiming for allocation at stores, there are also those who can compete by number even if performance per unit drops. This could be an investment like a public offering (PO) or off-site sale. It can be said that it is tough for investors like me who compete in online lotteries.
Recently, the number of stocks that break open prices has increased too much, and popular stocks are difficult to win, and there is also a situation where stocks with a possibility of open price split are being elected more and more. It seems that there are also people who are in the online lottery group who grabbed the open price and disliked the IPO. The current situation is that there are many people who apply without selecting stocks.
Items that can be easily checked in IPOs include “public offering scale,” “public offering and sales,” “performance,” “shareholder structure,” and “business details.” It's easy once you understand it, but recently there are too many stocks that break open prices, so I recommend that you check lightly before participating in an IPO.
If the work of doing your own research is troublesome, it might be a good idea to check the articles I have compiled by brand. An original initial price forecast is also posted when listing is approved. The blog name is “If it's an IPO initial price prediction blog, Kim's IPO investment diary.”
The number of securities companies that can participate in the IPO lottery without advance payment is increasing, so everyone can expect to win. However, it is unfortunate because it is becoming an unexciting investment. If the 2024-like environment continues in 2025, the number of investors leaving the IPO may increase.
There is no problem with those who work well with over-the-counter securities, but since internet groups only take time and effort, the time may have come when it is better to review investment methods. If I can't make a profit from an IPO, I'm thinking of aiming for profit by combining it with real estate investment type crowdfunding, digital securities, etc. I've already started investing though!
There is no choice but to leave it up to the market, but I would be happy if 2025 becomes the year when IPOs are revived. If you are unable to make a profit due to an IPO, it might be a good idea to try investing in Clafan, etc.
Of course, we are also investing in US stock index funds (mutual funds) and RoboAd. It is a situation where crypto assets (virtual currency) are left unattended for a small amount. However, since funds are being used for IPOs, large funds have not been allocated to other investments, and loss of opportunity has occurred.
I was working exclusively on IPO investments, but 2024 was a year that made me think about a lot of things. I'm looking forward to seeing what year 2025 will be like. I hope for a revival of IPO investment!!
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Author's name: IPO Kim
Blog name: If it's an initial IPO price prediction blog, Kim's IPO investment diary
