We Think Hunan Zhongke Electric (SZSE:300035) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
We Think Hunan Zhongke Electric (SZSE:300035) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Hunan Zhongke Electric Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300035) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
大衛·伊本說得好,『波動性不是我們關心的風險。我們關心的是避免資本的永久損失。』所以,聰明的錢知道,債務——通常與破產相關——是評估公司風險時一個非常重要的因素。像許多其他公司一樣,中科電氣(SZSE:300035)也利用了債務。但是,這筆債務對股東來說是一個問題嗎?
When Is Debt A Problem?
何時債務成爲問題?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
當一家公司無法輕鬆履行其義務時,債務和其他負債就變得風險重重,無論是通過自由現金流還是以有吸引力的價格籌集資本。資本主義的一個重要部分便是「創造性破壞」的過程,失敗的企業會被其銀行家無情地清算。雖然這並不常見,但我們常常看到負債累累的公司因貸款方迫使他們以折價籌集資本而永久稀釋股東權益。當然,很多公司利用債務來推動增長,沒有任何負面後果。當我們考慮一家公司使用債務的情況時,我們首先會將現金和債務放在一起查看。
What Is Hunan Zhongke Electric's Debt?
中科電氣的債務是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2024 Hunan Zhongke Electric had debt of CN¥2.93b, up from CN¥2.29b in one year. On the flip side, it has CN¥834.1m in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥2.09b.
下面的圖片,您可以點擊查看更詳細的信息,顯示到2024年9月,中科電氣的債務爲29.3億人民幣,較去年22.9億人民幣有所上升。另一方面,它有83410萬人民幣的現金,導致淨債務約爲20.9億人民幣。

How Strong Is Hunan Zhongke Electric's Balance Sheet?
中科電氣的資產負債表有多強?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Hunan Zhongke Electric had liabilities of CN¥4.33b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥1.96b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had CN¥834.1m in cash and CN¥2.77b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥2.68b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
根據最新報告的資產負債表,中科電氣在12個月內到期的負債爲43.3億人民幣,12個月後到期的負債爲19.6億人民幣。相抵的是,它有83410萬人民幣的現金和27.7億人民幣的應收賬款,這些應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,它的負債總額比現金和短期應收賬款的總和多出26.8億人民幣。
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Hunan Zhongke Electric has a market capitalization of CN¥10.2b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
雖然這看起來很多,但這並不算糟糕,因爲中科電氣的市值爲102億人民幣,因此如果需要,它可能會通過融資來增強資產負債表。但是,顯然我們應該仔細檢查它能否在不稀釋的情況下管理其債務。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
我們通過查看公司的淨債務與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的比率,以及計算息稅前利潤(EBIT)覆蓋利息費用的能力(利息保障率),來衡量公司的債務負擔相對於其盈利能力的情況。這種方法的優勢在於,我們同時考慮了債務的絕對量(通過淨債務與EBITDA的比率)和與該債務相關的實際利息費用(通過其利息保障率)。
Hunan Zhongke Electric has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.7 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 3.7 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. However, it should be some comfort for shareholders to recall that Hunan Zhongke Electric actually grew its EBIT by a hefty 889%, over the last 12 months. If that earnings trend continues it will make its debt load much more manageable in the future. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Hunan Zhongke Electric's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
中科電氣的債務與EBITDA比率爲2.7,其EBIT覆蓋利息支出3.7倍。這表明儘管債務水平顯著,但我們不至於稱其爲問題。然而,股東不妨回想一下,中科電氣實際上在過去12個月裏增加了889%的EBIT。如果這種盈利趨勢持續下去,它的債務負擔將在未來變得更可管理。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是起點。但未來的收益,尤其是,將決定中科電氣未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你關注未來,可以查看這份免費的報告,了解分析師的盈利預測。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Hunan Zhongke Electric burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
最終,企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤並不足夠。因此,檢查該EBIt中有多少是由自由現金流支撐的,值得關注。在過去三年中,中科電氣消耗了大量現金。儘管投資者無疑期待這種情況會在適當的時候逆轉,但這顯然意味着其使用債務的風險更高。
Our View
我們的觀點
Hunan Zhongke Electric's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and interest cover definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But the good news is it seems to be able to grow its EBIT with ease. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Hunan Zhongke Electric is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 3 warning signs with Hunan Zhongke Electric (at least 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
中科電氣將EBIt轉換爲自由現金流和利息償付能力顯然給我們帶來了壓力。但好消息是,它似乎能夠輕鬆地增長EBIt。綜合考慮上述所有方面,我們認爲中科電氣由於其債務成了一項相當風險的投資。這並不一定是壞事,因爲槓桿可以提升股本回報,但這確實是需要注意的地方。當你分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是需要關注的領域。但最終,每家公司都可能存在資產負債表之外的風險。我們已經確定中科電氣有3個警告信號(至少有1個讓我們感到不安),理解這些信號應成爲你投資過程的一部分。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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