智通财经APP获悉，克而瑞地产发文称，2024年，受到行业整体筑底调整、企业现金流压力等因素叠加影响，房企投资意愿、态度极为谨慎，全年新增土储金额TOP100总量同比降31%，较2020年高点减少76%。投资缩减之下，拿地格局、策略仍然惯性延续。一方面保持了“少数央国企占主导、多地城投托底、民企持续萎靡”的态势，拿地金额TOP10中，央企占据了半壁江山;另一方面，聚焦高能级城市成为众多企业的共识，大多数企业投资金额中一二线占比均超过90%。虽然年底投资迎来小幅“翘尾”，但销售回暖传导至投资仍需时间，预计2025年企业投资将继续维持谨慎、分化的趋势。

新增土储货值、总价百强门槛同比跌17%和10%

2024年1-12月新增土储货值百强门槛值为6.13 billion元，同比下降17%，新增总价百强门槛值为2.78 billion元，同比下降10%。唯一同比回正的新增建面百强门槛值为0.558 million平方米，同比提升7%，该指标从11月末同比开始回正。

金额百强总量同比跌31%，较2020年高点降幅超七成

Real estate company investments have continued to decline for three consecutive years. In 2024, the new land reserve sales value, total price, and construction area of the top 100 real estate companies were 2206.2 billion yuan, 1072.9 billion yuan, and 10,566 million square meters respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 31%, 31%, and 21% respectively, and the decline has continued to increase compared to the end of last year. Particularly in terms of investment amounts, there has been a 76% drop compared to the peak in 2020.

The land acquisition to sales ratio of the top 100 real estate companies is 0.17, reaching a new low in the past five years.

The land acquisition to sales ratio continues to decline, with the top 100 real estate companies' ratio in 2024 being only 0.17, a decrease of 0.04 compared to last year, marking a new low in the past five years. However, it has improved by 0.01 compared to 0.16 at the end of November. Under the market stabilization conditions, the final month saw a slight increase in land acquisition enthusiasm, driven by large central state-owned enterprises.

Looking at it by tier, the top 10 real estate companies have a land acquisition to sales ratio of 0.25, an increase of 0.04 from the end of November. The top 11-20 real estate companies have a ratio of 0.14, rising by 0.06 from the end of November, showing the most significant effect during the year-end push for these two tiers of companies.

Concentration continues to rise, with the top 10 real estate companies accounting for 62% of the new sales value.

During the market downturn cycle, company investments have become more focused, with the concentration of new sales value continuing to rise. In 2024, the top 10 real estate companies accounted for 62% of the new sales value, an increase of 3 percentage points compared to the end of November and the entire year of 2023.

In Other tiers, the newly added value of TOP 11-20 real estate companies this year accounts for only 13%, a decrease of 6 percentage points year-on-year. TOP 21-30 real estate companies account for only 4%, a decrease of 2 percentage points year-on-year. Many companies in these two tiers have postponed land acquisitions this year, with their focus remaining on sales returns. Additionally, the proportions of TOP 31-50 and the bottom 50 real estate companies have slightly increased compared to the same period last year.

At the end of the year, investment is seeing a "tail effect" again, with a strong focus on core cities.

In December, as the overall market "stabilizes after declining" and with a focus on land auction in core cities, the monthly investment amount of 30 monitored real estate companies approached 150 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 6% and 66%, respectively. The amount of land acquisition has rebounded significantly for two consecutive months, reaching a two-year high.

The companies acquiring the most land in a single month are still predominantly the familiar central state-owned enterprises that rank highly in sales scale and land acquisition scale for 2024. Central enterprises such as China Overseas Land & Investment, CHINA RES LAND, Poly Developments and Holdings Group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings, and CHINA JINMAO all exceeded 10 billion yuan in land acquisition in December, with investments focused on high-tier cities.

Looking at the entire year, the land acquisition choices of companies in 2024 have become highly similar, with investments becoming more focused and cautious. On the one hand, the number of cities being developed is further reduced; looking at the top 10 national real estate companies in terms of land acquisition amount, none of them are investing in more than 20 cities in 2024. On the other hand, first and second-tier cities have become the first choice for typical companies, while third and fourth-tier cities continue to be neglected. In the top 10, nine companies have over 95% of their investment in first and second-tier cities, with YUEXIU PROPERTY, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group, and China State Construction Engineering Corp focusing solely on first and second-tier cities.

Although central enterprises have a large investment scale, the year-on-year decline has exceeded 30%. The phenomenon of land market support from city investment remains evident.

In terms of specific investment layout by enterprises, the pattern of "a few central state-owned enterprises dominating, multiple local investment companies providing support, and continuing weakness of private enterprises" will remain in 2024.

Central state-owned enterprises are also deeply affected by the continued bottoming out of market sales, becoming increasingly cautious with their investments. Although the scale of investment remains leading, it has significantly decreased compared to last year. Among the top 100 land acquisition amounts, central enterprises and state-owned enterprises saw declines of 36% and 21% year-on-year, and their respective shares of the top 100 amounts decreased by 3 and 2 percentage points, to 40% and 19%.

This has led to the continued need for local investment platform companies to support the land market in several regions. On one hand, it is reflected in the fact that the land acquisition amount of listed local investment companies accounts for 26%, second only to central enterprises, and among the listed numbers, local investment enterprises hold nearly half; on the other hand, the land acquisition amount of local investment platform companies has increased by 35% year-on-year, showing a significant contrast with central state-owned enterprises and private enterprises.

Sales recovery will still take time to translate into investment, as corporate investment is still in the bottoming phase.

Compared with 2023, property enterprises' investment performance in 2024 is more cautious and contracted, with a continuous decline in new land acquisition scale throughout the year. Even among the relatively active leading central state-owned enterprises, the strength of investment also shows a year-on-year decline, most of which exceeds 20%. Looking ahead, with the sales side still not achieving a widespread and stable rebound, it is expected that corporate investment will not show obvious improvement in 2025, remaining mainly cautious and differentiated.

From the perspective of cities, property enterprises will focus on core cities or their own cultivated areas, abandoning the pursuit of nationwide布局; in 2025, investments will continue to focus, with core cities and quality plots potentially experiencing localized prosperity. From the perspective of enterprises, leading central state-owned enterprises are expected to continue to take the lead in exerting effort, continually supplementing quality land reserves during the market downturn, while small to mid-sized property enterprises and most private enterprises are expected to remain cautious and wait for future performance to decide whether to increase investment intensity.