国联证券指出，考虑2024年LPR多次下调，上市银行2025年资产端收益预计仍将承压。根据我们的测算，重定价将导致上市银行2025年贷款收益率下行22BP左右，将拉低上市银行净息差17BP左右。负债端，2023年以来长期限定期存款挂牌利率下调幅度超100BP，根据我们的测算，仅3年期定期存款到期便能拉低上市银行存款成本约10BP，有望提振上市银行2025年净息差7BP左右，因此负债成本改善将成为息差表现差异的核心。此外，同业负债成本管控已落地，银行后续息差降幅有望收窄。Domestic bank stocks declined collectively. As of press release, ICBC (01398) fell 3.26% to HK$4.89; CCB (00939) fell 2.82% to HK$6.09; Bank of Communications (03328) fell 2.66% to HK$6.22; and Galaxy of China (03988) fell 1.26% to HK$3.92.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that domestic bank stocks were collectively lower. As of press release, ICBC (01398) fell 3.26% to HK$4.89; CCB (00939) fell 2.82% to HK$6.09; Bank of Communications (03328) fell 2.66% to HK$6.22; and Galaxy of China (03988) fell 1.26% to HK$3.92.
According to the news, the yield on major interbank interest rate bonds continues to decline today. Treasury bond futures rose collectively in midday trading. The 30-year main contract rose 0.79% and the 10-year main contract rose 0.22%, all of which reached record highs. CICC pointed out that current interest rates on treasury bonds have been fully factored into expectations of interest rate cuts. Future market interest rate trends will focus on the short-term effects of the easing pace of monetary policy, public funds stopping profits, and pre-issuance of government bonds. Afterwards, we will focus on the fiscal effect of boosting price recovery.
Guolian Securities pointed out that considering multiple LPR cuts in 2024, the asset-side earnings of listed banks are expected to remain under pressure in 2025. According to our estimates, repricing will cause the loan yield of listed banks to drop by about 22BP in 2025, which will reduce the net interest spreads of listed banks by about 17BP. On the debt side, interest rates on long-term term deposits have been lowered by more than 100BP since 2023. According to our estimates, the 3-year term deposit maturity alone can reduce deposit costs of listed banks by about 10 BP, which is expected to boost the net interest spread of listed banks by about 7 BP in 2025, so improving debt costs will be the core of differences in interest spread performance. Furthermore, interbank debt cost controls have been implemented, and the subsequent reduction in bank interest spreads is expected to narrow.
