平安证券认为，2024年百强销售延续筑底，行业格局持续分化，主流房企表现更具韧性。展望2025年，维持房地产“止跌回稳”或遵循“核心城市好产品——一线+二线核心区——全国经济企稳——全国楼市企稳——投资企稳”路径判断，二线郊区及三四线销售承压下，预计全国商品房销售面积同比下降6.5%，若收储及城中村改造等政策支持超出预期，降息力度及节奏超出预期，可能带来商品房销售超预期表现。Most Mainland Real Estate stocks fell. As of the time of writing, CH OVS G OCEANS (00081) dropped 3.39%, trading at 1.71 Hong Kong dollars; SEAZEN (01030) fell 3.3%, trading at 1.76 Hong Kong dollars; RONSHINECHINA (03301) decreased by 2.67%, trading at 0.365 Hong Kong dollars.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, most of the Mainland Real Estate stocks have declined. As of the time of writing, CH OVS G OCEANS (00081) fell by 3.39%, priced at 1.71 Hong Kong dollars; SEAZEN (01030) fell by 3.3%, priced at 1.76 Hong Kong dollars; RONSHINECHINA (03301) fell by 2.67%, priced at 0.365 Hong Kong dollars; SINO-OCEAN GP (03377) fell by 1.62%, priced at 0.243 Hong Kong dollars.
In terms of news, data from the China Index Academy shows that in 2024, from January to December, the total sales of the TOP 100 real estate companies amounted to 4,354.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.6%, with the decline narrowing by 2.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. In December alone, the sales of the TOP 100 real estate companies decreased by 3.41% year-on-year, a narrowing decline, with a month-on-month growth of 28.86%. Additionally, according to CRIC data, in December 2024, the TOP 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 451.39 billion yuan, a month-on-month growth of 24.2%, remaining the same year-on-year. Cumulatively, from January to December, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 3,884.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.1%, with the decline narrowing by nearly 2.6 percentage points compared to November.
Ping An Securities believes that the sales of the top 100 real estate companies will continue to bottom out in 2024, with the industry pattern continuing to diversify, and mainstream real estate companies show greater resilience. Looking to 2025, the outlook maintains that the Real Estate market will 'stop declining and stabilize' and follow the path of ‘good products in core cities - core areas of first and second tier cities - national economic stabilization - national real estate stabilization - investment stabilization.' Under the pressure of sales in second-tier suburbs and third and fourth-tier cities, it is expected that the national sales area of commercial housing will decrease by 6.5% year-on-year. If policies supporting storage and urban village transformation exceed expectations, and interest rate cuts exceed expectations in both intensity and pace, it may lead to better-than-expected performance in commercial housing sales.