天风证券发布研报称，25年受益于基建实物工作量的推进以及地产新建端的筑底，水泥需求降幅有望收窄，而供给侧将逐渐发力，短期来看，错峰生产仍是调节供需平衡最有效的手段，25年随着限制超产政策的逐步趋严，倒闭企业通过补足超产指标等方式退出中小产能，行业有望开始实现真正意义上的产能出清，而2027年开始将进入碳交易深化完善阶段，行业产能优化效果有望进一步显现。Cement stocks fell collectively; as of the time of writing, BBMG Corporation (02009) is down 5%, trading at HKD 0.76; CONCH CEMENT (00914) is down 4.83%, trading at HKD 18.92; CR BLDG MAT TEC (01313) is down 3.14%, trading at HKD 1.54; Huaxin Cement (06655) is down 1.79%, trading at HKD 7.69.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, cement stocks have collectively declined. As of the time of writing, BBMG Corporation (02009) fell by 5%, trading at HKD 0.76; CONCH CEMENT (00914) fell by 4.83%, trading at HKD 18.92; CR BLDG MAT TEC (01313) fell by 3.14%, trading at HKD 1.54; Huaxin Cement (06655) fell by 1.79%, trading at HKD 7.69.
Everbright pointed out that from January to November 2024, national cement production decreased by 10% year-on-year, mainly due to the decline in demand from infrastructure and real estate. In the first three quarters of 2024, cement prices in the East China region continued to decline, putting significant pressure on the profitability of many enterprises in the region. After price increases are successfully implemented in Q4 2024, quarterly profits are expected to improve significantly. In this context, it is anticipated that enterprises will still have a strong willingness to maintain prices in 2025, and it is determined that the average price for the whole year of 2025 will increase significantly year-on-year.
Tianfeng released a Research Report stating that in 2025, thanks to the advancement of infrastructure physical work volume and the stabilization of new construction in the real estate sector, the decline in cement demand is expected to narrow, while the supply side will gradually become more active. In the short term, staggered production remains the most effective means to balance supply and demand. As policies to limit overproduction become gradually stricter in 2025, companies that are in financial trouble may exit the market by compensating for overproduction Indicators and other means, allowing the Industry to begin to achieve genuine production capacity clearance. Starting from 2027, the industry will enter a stage of deepening and improving Carbon Trading, and the optimization effects of production capacity are expected to become more apparent.
