As 2025 has arrived, on January 2nd, Deutsche Bank Analysts released the results of their market survey conducted earlier and summarized 13 highlights, revealing the risks and development trends that the financial markets may face in 2025.

This survey collected opinions from 471 respondents globally, spanning from December 10 to 13, 2024. Among them, global trade conflicts were viewed as the largest observable risk for 2025, followed by a crash in Technology stocks, with one-third of respondents believing that the 'seven giants' of the USA stock market will decline, along with concerns about inflation and Bonds yields. They also believe that in 2025, Bitcoin poses the greatest bubble risk, while European Stocks are considered the 'most distant from a bubble.'

In 2025, economic growth in the USA will surpass that of Europe.

The survey results show that only 2% of respondents believe that economic growth in the USA will be below 1% in 2025, while this figure is the average expected growth for Europe.

The average expected growth rate for the USA is 2.5%, but no respondents (0%) believe that Europe will reach or exceed this level.

The largest observable risk: global trade conflicts.

Respondents believe that the biggest observable risk in 2025 is global trade conflicts, followed by a plunge in Technology Stocks and concerns about inflation and Bonds yields.

Trump will not be as aggressive with tariffs as he was during the campaign.

The survey shows that investors believe Trump is serious about tariffs but do not think he will be as aggressive as he promised during the campaign, thus giving an average score of '5 points'.

Only 6.4% of respondents believe that Trump's tariff policy will be more 'extreme' than during the campaign, scoring '8 points or above'.

Germany will reform the 'debt brake'.

The vast majority (90%) of respondents believe that Germany's 'debt brake (the federal government's borrowing limit)' will be reformed, but only 12% believe that this reform will be significant.

Among them, German respondents have more confidence in the reforms, with only 2% believing that the "debt brake" will remain unchanged.

Bitcoin has the highest bubble risk, while European Stocks have the lowest risk.

Deutsche Bank raised the same question three times in 2021 and 2024, inquiring about the market's view on the "bubbleization" of various Assets.

The survey results show that compared to 2021, fewer people believe that a Technology bubble will occur in the USA in 2024, but the overall figure remains very high.

Additionally, although the "Seven Giants" of the US stock market saw an increase of 72.5% in 2024, the bubble score for that year did not increase significantly.

Among a series of Assets, Bitcoin is viewed as having the highest bubble risk, while European Stocks are seen as the Assets that are "farthest from a bubble."

One third of the respondents believe that the 'Seven Giants' will decline.

Regarding the performance of the 'Seven Giants' in the USA stock market in 2025, 33% of the respondents believe they will decline, and 22% believe that their decline will exceed 10%.

However, 67% believe that the 'Seven Giants' will continue to rise, with an average expected overall increase of 6.8%, lower than the expected 12.9% in 2024.

The expected yield on US Treasury Notes is around 4.2%.

Respondents' average expectation for the yield on US Treasury Notes in 2025 is 4.2%, slightly lower than the current level of 4.5%.

Only 4% believe that the yield on US Treasury Notes will exceed 5% by the end of 2025.

The yield on German Bonds is expected to remain stable.

Surveys show that the yield on German Bonds will remain stable in 2025, but 50% of respondents expect the German 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield to be below 2% by the end of the year.

The S&P 500 Index is expected to rise by 5.2%.

Respondents on average expect the S&P 500 Index to rise by 5.2% in 2025, with 23% believing the increase will exceed 10%, but still, 23% think it will decline. An "overwhelming consensus (35%)" believes the increase will be between 5% and 10% and is more concentrated than in previous years.

The gains for Bitcoin and NVIDIA are expected to be halved.

Survey results indicate that Bitcoin and NVIDIA are considered more likely to see their growth halved rather than doubled, especially Bitcoin.

However, 24% and 28% of people still believe they will double.

So far in 2021, both stocks have doubled, but they also halved in 2022.

The penetration of AI in the workplace is increasing.

Surveys show that the penetration of AI in offices is increasing, but its widespread use has not increased over the past five months.

Divergence in inflation expectations between the USA and Europe.

There is a clear divergence in market inflation expectations for the USA and Europe. Expectations for US inflation are expected to rise again in 2024, while expectations for Europe have significantly declined since summer and have fallen below 2% for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2021.

People's favorite Christmas movie is "Home Alone."

In the end, the survey shows that "Home Alone" is people's favorite Christmas movie, followed closely by "Die Hard."