While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the First Merchants Corporation (NASDAQ:FRME) share price up 10% in a single quarter. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. In fact, the share price is down 12% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.
It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
First Merchants saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 7.0% per year, over the last three years. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 4% compound annual share price fall. This suggests that the market retains some optimism around long term earnings stability, despite past EPS declines.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on First Merchants' earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for First Merchants the TSR over the last 3 years was -1.8%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
First Merchants provided a TSR of 16% over the last twelve months. But that was short of the market average. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 3% per year over five year. This suggests the company might be improving over time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with First Merchants , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.