其次，衡量新订单的指数进一步跌破荣枯线，降至三个月低点，而衡量积压订单的指数从42.9降至42.0，表明更多的整体活动是为了满足旧需求。尽管工厂连续第四个月降价，而且对今年的乐观情绪有所改善，但制造商仍在裁员。In December of last year, the Eurozone manufacturing industry hardly saw a festive atmosphere.
Zhitong Finance learned that a survey showed that the Eurozone manufacturing industry did not perform well at the end of last year, factory activity declined at an accelerated pace, and there was little sign that the economy was about to recover. As the three largest economies in the Eurozone — Germany, France, and Italy — fall into a manufacturing recession, the scope of the recession widened again. The final Eurozone manufacturing PMI for December announced by HCOB was revised down to 45.1, slightly lower than the initial value, and further below the boom-bust watershed of 50. The index was 45.2 in November and has been below 50 since mid-2022.
One index that measures output fell to 44.3 from 45.1 in November; this indicator was used to calculate the composite PMI to be announced next Monday and is regarded as a good indicator of economic health.
Second, the index measuring new orders fell further below the boom and bust line and fell to a three-month low, while the index measuring backlog of orders fell from 42.9 to 42.0, indicating more overall activity to meet old demand. Despite the factory cutting prices for the fourth month in a row, and optimism about this year has improved, the manufacturer is still laying off workers.
Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Commerzbank Hamburg, said: “Even in December, the manufacturing industry didn't bring any holiday joy. It's the same old story — malaise. The drop in new orders even surpassed the previous two months, shattering any hope for a rapid economic recovery. This view is supported by the accelerated decline in backlog orders.”
US President-designate Trump will return to the White House later this month. He proposed a 10% tariff on all imported goods, which would make European goods more expensive in the US, and therefore less popular, thereby cracking down on Europe's already weak manufacturing industry. Meanwhile, in the ECB's latest quarterly forecast, the central bank lowered its economic growth forecast for the region. The region's economic growth rate is expected to be only 1.1% this year. This forecast doesn't even include the potential drag from Trump's US trade policy, nor does it take into account the political turmoil in Germany and France.
The ECB may provide some support in this context. Earlier, a number of ECB officials released pigeons to appease the market, saying that interest rates will be cut even more this year. For example, François Villeroy de Gallo, member of the ECB Governing Council and president of the Bank of France, said earlier that the ECB will further reduce borrowing costs in 2025, and investors' bets on cutting interest rates by more than 100 basis points seem reasonable. According to an earlier survey, economists expect the ECB to cut interest rates by at least 100 basis points this year.