Graphic Packaging Holding Company's (NYSE:GPK) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.4x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 19x and even P/E's above 34x are quite common. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Recent times have been advantageous for Graphic Packaging Holding as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think this strong earnings performance might be less impressive moving forward. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the market for P/E ratios like Graphic Packaging Holding's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow earnings per share by a handy 5.8% last year. This was backed up an excellent period prior to see EPS up by 199% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 1.2% as estimated by the eleven analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 15% growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's understandable that Graphic Packaging Holding's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on while the company is potentially eyeing a less prosperous future.
The Final Word
Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
As we suspected, our examination of Graphic Packaging Holding's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook is contributing to its low P/E. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Graphic Packaging Holding you should be aware of, and 1 of them can't be ignored.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Graphic Packaging Holding, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
