share_log

Kohl's (NYSE:KSS) Sheds US$90m, Company Earnings and Investor Returns Have Been Trending Downwards for Past Three Years

Simply Wall St ·  Jan 2 20:49

If you love investing in stocks you're bound to buy some losers. But the long term shareholders of Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS) have had an unfortunate run in the last three years. Regrettably, they have had to cope with a 71% drop in the share price over that period. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 47% in a year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 28% in the last three months.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Kohl's moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. So it's worth looking at other metrics to try to understand the share price move.

Given the healthiness of the dividend payments, we doubt that they've concerned the market. However, the weak share price might be related to the fact revenue has been disappearing at a rate of 4.8% each year, over three years. This could have some investors worried about the longer term growth potential (or lack thereof).

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

big
NYSE:KSS Earnings and Revenue Growth January 2nd 2025

Kohl's is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Kohl's the TSR over the last 3 years was -64%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Kohl's had a tough year, with a total loss of 41% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 26%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 10% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Kohl's is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is significant...

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
    Write a comment