'Trump Administration Will Be An Unpredictability Machine:' Economists Warn 'Maganomics' Could Hinder Long Term Growth
'Trump Administration Will Be An Unpredictability Machine:' Economists Warn 'Maganomics' Could Hinder Long Term Growth
Amid growing concerns over Donald Trump's economic policies, a recent survey reveals that economists are wary of the potential negative impacts of his "Maganomics" strategy. This comes as Trump prepares for a possible return to the White House.
在對特朗普的經濟政策日益擔憂的背景下,最近的一項調查顯示,經濟學家對他"特朗普概念"策略可能帶來的負面影響感到警惕。這正值特朗普準備可能重返白宮之際。
What Happened: According to a Financial Times reported on Thursday, a survey of over 220 economists across the US, UK, and Eurozone reveals concerns about Trump's economic strategy, dubbed "Maganomics." The poll suggests that Trump's protectionist policies may impede growth despite investor optimism.
發生了什麼:根據《金融時報》週四的報道,對美國、英國和歐洲區超過220名經濟學家的調查顯示,人們對特朗普的經濟策略,稱爲「特朗普經濟學」表示擔憂。調查表明,特朗普的保護主義政策可能會阻礙經濟增長,儘管投資者樂觀。
Many economists believe that Trump's return to the White House could lead to inflation and cautious Federal Reserve actions on interest rates. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, a professor at Brown University, stated that while Trump's policies might spur short-term growth, they could also result in a global slowdown, eventually affecting the US negatively.
許多經濟學家認爲,特朗普重返白宮可能會導致通貨膨脹,以及聯邦儲備委員會對利率採取謹慎措施。布朗大學教授謝布奈姆·卡萊姆利-奧爾坎表示,儘管特朗普的政策可能會刺激短期增長,但這也可能導致全球經濟放緩,最終對美國產生負面影響。
The survey, conducted with the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, found that more than half of the economists expect some negative impact from Trump's agenda. This includes plans for significant tariffs and deportations, which are seen as inflationary and potentially harmful to growth, according to Janice Eberly of Northwestern University.
與芝加哥大學布斯商學院進行的調查顯示,超過一半的經濟學家預計特朗普的議程會產生一些負面影響。這包括計劃大幅徵收關稅和驅逐移民,這些措施被認爲具有通貨膨脹性,可能對增長造成損害,正如西北大學的賈尼斯·埃伯利所言。
Barret Kupelian, chief economist at PwC UK, added, "The Trump administration will be an 'unpredictability machine' which will dissuade business and households from taking long-term decisions with ease. This will inevitably have an economic cost."
普華永道英國的首席經濟學家巴雷特·庫佩利安補充道:「特朗普政府將是一個『不可預測的機器』,這將使企業和家庭在做出長期決策時變得更加困難。這不可避免地會產生經濟成本。」
Despite these concerns, the U.S. economy is projected to grow faster than Europe's in 2025. However, Eurozone economists are particularly worried about the impact on manufacturing, especially in Germany. The U.K.'s large services sector may offer some insulation, but uncertainty remains a concern.
儘管存在這些擔憂,但預計美國經濟在2025年的增長速度將快於歐洲。然而,歐洲區的經濟學家特別擔心製造業的影響,尤其是德國。英國龐大的服務業部門可能提供一定的保護,但不確定性依然是一個問題。
Why It Matters: Trump's economic strategies have been a focal point of discussion, especially his proposed tariff hikes and deregulation policies. In 2024, the U.S. Dollar experienced significant strength, reaching levels not seen since 2002. Analysts predict this trend may continue into 2025, bolstered by Trump's tax cuts and tariff increases.
重要性:特朗普的經濟策略一直是討論的焦點,特別是他提出的關稅上漲和放鬆監管政策。在2024年,美國美元經歷了顯著的強勢,達到自2002年以來未見的水平。分析師預測,這一趨勢可能會持續到2025年,受到特朗普減稅和關稅增加的推動。
However, these policies also pose risks. Goldman Sachs has warned that Trump's aggressive tariff plans could lead to economic challenges for North America, with potential GDP contractions for Canada and Mexico. The U.S. could also face a slowdown in growth, highlighting the complex implications of Trump's economic agenda.
然而,這些政策也帶來了風險。高盛警告稱,特朗普的激進關稅計劃可能會給北美帶來經濟挑戰,加拿大和墨西哥的GDP可能會收縮。美國也可能面臨增長放緩,突顯了特朗普經濟議程的複雜影響。
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