According to Zhitong Finance, on the first trading day of 2025, the three major indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones falling for the fourth consecutive trading day, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 Index declining for the fifth consecutive day. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the USA last week was lower than expected.

[US Stocks] At the close of trading, the Dow Jones fell by 151.95 points, a decrease of 0.36%, closing at 42392.27 points; the Nasdaq fell by 30.00 points, a decrease of 0.16%, closing at 19280.79 points; the S&P 500 Index fell by 13.08 points, a decrease of 0.22%, closing at 5868.55 points. Apple (AAPL.US) fell by 2.6%, Tesla (TSLA.US) fell by 6.08%, and NVIDIA (NVDA.US) rose by 2.9%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down by 1.5%, while NIO (NIO.US) rose by 4%.

[European Stocks] The German DAX30 Index rose by 112.15 points, an increase of 0.56%, closing at 20021.29 points; the UK FTSE100 Index rose by 87.09 points, an increase of 1.07%, closing at 8260.11 points; the France CAC40 Index rose by 13.02 points, an increase of 0.18%, closing at 7393.76 points; the Stoxx Europe 50 Index rose by 20.37 points, an increase of 0.42%, closing at 4916.35 points; the Spain IBEX35 Index rose by 77.38 points, an increase of 0.67%, closing at 11672.38 points; the Italian FTSE MIB Index rose by 185.82 points, an increase of 0.54%, closing at 34372.00 points.

[Asia-Pacific Stock Markets] The Nikkei 225 Index fell by 0.96%, the Indonesia Jakarta Composite Index rose by 1.18%, and the South Korea KOSPI Index dipped slightly.

[Cryptos] Bitcoin briefly surpassed 97000 USD per coin, up 2.60% during the day; Ethereum briefly touched 3500 USD per coin, up 4.26% during the day.

[Gold] Spot gold saw an increase of up to 1.0% during the day, closing at 2650.98 USD per ounce.

【Crude Oil】The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $1.41, an increase of 1.97%, closing at $73.13 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures gained $1.29, closing at $75.93 per barrel, a rise of 1.73%. Crude oil prices rose at the beginning of 2025, reaching the highest level since October, boosted by bullish Technical Indicators and a decrease in US crude oil inventories. Strategas Securities Analyst Jon Byrne stated that the EIA data is overly confusing, and year-end inventory adjustments for tax purposes obscure the outlook, making it difficult to reach a clear conclusion. "In any case, crude oil prices are at the upper limit of our target range, and we expect that physical buyers will be exhausted at these levels." The Technical Indicators also supported the rise in oil prices, as the two major benchmarks closed above the 100-day moving average for the first time since October on Tuesday. The WTI spot price spread rose to 63 cents, reflecting that near-term demand exceeds supply.

【Forex】The USD Index, measuring the dollar against six major currencies, rose by 0.84% on the day, closing at 109.394. As of the New York Forex market close, 1 euro exchanged for 1.0251 dollars, down from the previous trading day's 1.0358 dollars; 1 British Pound exchanged for 1.2369 dollars, down from the previous trading day's 1.2516 dollars. 1 dollar exchanged for 157.62 Japanese Yen, up from the previous trading day's 157.40 Japanese Yen; 1 dollar exchanged for 0.9134 Swiss Francs, up from the previous trading day's 0.9077 Swiss Francs; 1 dollar exchanged for 1.4418 Canadian dollars, up from the previous trading day's 1.4393 Canadian dollars; 1 dollar exchanged for 11.1682 Swedish Krona, up from the previous trading day's 11.0518 Swedish Krona.

[Macroeconomic News]

The upward revision of the December manufacturing PMI in the USA released positive signals. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated that the final value of the US December manufacturing PMI was revised up from a preliminary value of 48.3 to 49.4. This revision is slightly larger than usual, and given the disappointing preliminary data, this adjustment is especially welcomed. Due to the disappointing inflow of new orders, the decline in production in December increased. Despite the stabilization of order volumes in November as uncertainties surrounding the elections receded and a recovery in customer demand, this relief turned out to be temporary. However, many companies generally expect business will improve in the new year, with respondents pinning hopes on the new government's easing of regulations, reducing tax burdens, and boosting demand for US-manufactured goods through tariffs.

The number of initial unemployment claims in the USA fell to an eight-month low last week. The number of initial unemployment claims in the USA fell to an eight-month low last week, with continuing claims also decreasing to a three-month low of 1.844 million, reflecting that layoffs in the US labor market remain relatively small, and the labor market is still surprisingly resilient. Currently, the number of initial unemployment claims is low, consistent with pre-pandemic levels, and similarly consistent with the job market, where businesses are generally unwilling to lay off workers.

The average fixed mortgage rate in the USA rose to a six-month high. US mortgage rates jumped this week to their highest level in six months, suggesting that the recent improvement in home sales may be temporary. Freddie Mac, the mortgage financing agency, reported on Thursday that the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage rose from last week's 6.85% to 6.91%, the highest since early July. The average rate a year ago was 6.62%. Despite the Federal Reserve having lowered rates three times since initiating a monetary easing cycle in September, mortgage rates have continued to rise. Against the backdrop of economic recovery, mortgage rates are rising in tandem with US Treasury yields, as investors fear that policies proposed by President Trump, such as tax cuts, raised tariffs on imported goods, and mass deportations of illegal immigrants, may reignite inflation.

The US Treasury is advancing the termination of the conservatorship of the "GSEs". Today, the US Treasury and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced an agreement to amend the preferred stock purchase agreements (PSPAs) between the Treasury and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to help ensure the orderly termination of the conservatorship of the GSEs. Among other matters, the agreement also restores the Treasury's right to release the two enterprises from conservatorship that it had previously consented to. In addition, in another attached letter from the FHFA to the Treasury, the FHFA will seek public input on the potential impact on the housing market and the GSEs before lifting the conservatorship.

The reverse indicator for US stocks from Bank of America is approaching a "Sell" signal. As the S&P 500 Index has risen about 60% since the end of 2022, a reverse indicator from Bank of America is nearing a "Sell" signal. Strategists, including Savita Subramanian, noted that the Bank of America Sell Side Indicator (SSI) rose by 33 basis points in December to 57%, the highest level since early 2022; this indicator remains in the "Neutral" zone but is just 1 percentage point short of the "Sell" threshold. Subramanian wrote, "Despite increasing bullish calls that raise the risk of complacency, our data shows that market sentiment may remain elevated for a relatively long time before the end of the bull market." This indicator has not declined for eight consecutive months, the longest record since 2021. Bank of America targets the S&P 500 Index at 6,666 points by the end of 2025, implying an approximate 13% increase from the closing level on December 31.

[Individual Stock News]

Tesla (TSLA.US) Cybertruck has gained eligibility for US tax credits for the first time. The Cybertruck has qualified for the maximum $7,500 tax credit in the USA this year, marking its first eligibility. This is part of stricter new regulations that took effect on January 1. The rule also eliminates several other electric vehicles from receiving federal subsidies. According to the US Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency, currently, 18 electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid cars are eligible for credits, down from 22 last year. The reclassification of the credits falls under President Biden's landmark Inflation Reduction Act, which tightened requirements for domestic sourcing of battery components and raw materials. The decrease in the number of eligible electric vehicles coincides with a general weakening demand for pure electric vehicles in the market, while the incoming President Trump, who previously vowed to end the federal subsidy program, is set to take office later this month.

Meta (META.US) breaks computational limits with open-source 'memory layers' to reshape the Transformer architecture large model. Zuckerberg's Meta Platforms has shared an innovative study — Memory layers. Currently, the demand for computational power of pre-trained large models based on the Transformer architecture grows exponentially with increasing parameters during data storage and querying. The 'memory layers' propose a new efficient querying mechanism that replaces traditional methods by quickly finding the most relevant keys without traversing the model's entire memory layer, by comparing query keys with keys in two smaller sets. This means that the parameters of large models can be significantly increased without adding computational power. For instance, researchers added 12.8 billion additional memory parameters to a model with only 0.13 billion parameters, yielding performance comparable to Meta's open-source Llama 2-70, while requiring about 10 times less computational power.

[Major Banks Rating]

Goldman Sachs maintains a 'Buy' rating on EHang (EH.US).