It hasn't been the best quarter for Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:601952) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 10% in that time. On the bright side the returns have been quite good over the last half decade. It has returned a market beating 32% in that time.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During five years of share price growth, Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and DevelopmentLtd achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 6.1% per year. So the EPS growth rate is rather close to the annualized share price gain of 6% per year. This indicates that investor sentiment towards the company has not changed a great deal. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
Dive deeper into Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and DevelopmentLtd's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and DevelopmentLtd's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and DevelopmentLtd, it has a TSR of 49% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 9.3% in the last year, Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and DevelopmentLtd shareholders lost 2.3% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 8% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and DevelopmentLtd is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
We will like Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and DevelopmentLtd better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.