The US banking system's reserves fell below $3 trillion to their lowest level since October 2020. This is an important indicator of the Fed's continued balance-sheet reduction decision.
Bank reserves fell by about $3,26 billion to $2.89 trillion in the week ending January 1, according to data released by the Federal Reserve on Thursday. This is the biggest weekly drop in two and a half years.
This decline comes as the year-end situation forced banks to cut back on balance-sheet-intensive activities, such as repurchase agreement transactions, to enhance accounts to meet regulatory requirements. This means that capital flows to places such as the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase facility, which removes liquidity from the Fed's other debt categories. The overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) balance increased by $3,75 billion between December 20 and December 31, and declined by $2,34 billion on Thursday.
At the same time. The Federal Reserve has also been withdrawing excess cash from the financial system through quantitative austerity programs, while financial institutions continue to repay loans obtained from banks' regular financing plans.
As US policymakers continue to push for quantitative austerity, Wall Street strategists have been keeping a close eye on reserve levels, and some estimate the lowest point, including buffers, to be between 3 trillion and $3.25 trillion. Policymakers said at last month's meeting that they will continue to shrink the balance sheet.
Policymakers also adjusted the issuance rate of the RRP instrument to bring it in line with the bottom of the federal funds rate target range. This has put downward pressure on short-term interest rates, and some people think it may be enough to keep the quasi-principal amount reduced for a while longer.
However, people are still heating up over how long the Federal Reserve can maintain its quantitative austerity plan without evoking memories of September 2019. At a time when the Federal Reserve was shrinking its balance sheet, reserves became too low, and a shortage of funds caused interest rates on key loans and federal funds to soar. The Federal Reserve later had to intervene to stabilize the market.
The Federal Reserve began lowering the cap on US Treasury bonds that are not reinvested after monthly maturity in June, but it is unclear when the program will completely end.