According to reports from Zhitong Finance APP, global electric vehicle leader Tesla (TSLA.US) announced on Friday that its cumulative sales in the China market grew by 8.8% in 2024, setting a new historical high sales record in the China market with over 0.657 million vehicles. In this fiercely competitive market in China, Tesla performed exceptionally well. Despite its global annual delivery volume experiencing a decline for the first time, the tremendous demand in the China market still helped Tesla rank first globally in "Battery Electric Vehicle" (BEV) sales in 2024, slightly ahead of BYD.

Additionally, according to the latest statistics from Tesla China, the sales volume of Tesla in the largest electric vehicle market in the world grew significantly by 12.8% in December compared to the previous month, reaching a historical monthly record of 0.083 million vehicles. Based on sales statistics, in 2024, Tesla delivered up to 36.7% of Tesla brand battery electric vehicles to its second-largest market, China.

However, Tesla's global delivery volume for Tesla brand all-electric vehicles unexpectedly declined by 1.1%, failing to meet the stronger growth pace predicted earlier by Tesla's CEO and the world's richest man, Elon Musk. A significant reduction in electric vehicle subsidies in Europe, persistently high inflation in the USA, and market shifts toward cheaper hybrid and gasoline vehicles under the pressure of high interest rates, along with fierce competitive pressure from new global electric vehicle players, greatly impacted Tesla's global delivery volume.

The total global electric vehicle sales volume for Tesla in 2024 is approximately 1.79 million vehicles, still slightly ahead of BYD, whose global electric vehicle sales increased by 12.1% to about 1.76 million vehicles. For the year, Tesla's total delivery volume was 1.79 million vehicles, down 1.1% year-on-year, lower than the 1.806 million vehicles predicted by 19 analysts according to LSEG statistics. This also marks the first instance in Tesla's delivery history where there was a year-on-year decline in delivery volume.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, Tesla delivered 471,930 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, along with 23,640 other vehicle models including the Model S sedan, Cybertruck, and Model X luxury SUV. In the same quarter, its vehicle production reached 459,445. In the three months ending on December 31, 2024, Tesla delivered a total of 495,570 vehicles. Although this fourth-quarter delivery volume set a new historical high, it was slightly below the 503,269 vehicles predicted by 15 analysts according to LSEG statistics.

Facing a weak trend in global demand due to the withdrawal of subsidies and fierce competitive pressure from Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, this USA-based electric vehicle giant reduced its global workforce last year and scaled back its sales team in China.

As the price war for electric vehicles in the China market enters its third year, Tesla has extended the discount period for outstanding loans on the best-selling Model Y to 0.01 million yuan (approximately $1,369.99) and extended the zero-interest financing period for some Model 3 and Model Y vehicles to five years until the end of this month.

"The Trump 2.0 era" is about to arrive, and will Tesla's stock price surge toward the $500 mark.

With Trump about to return to the White House, the approval progress for Tesla's FSD and Robotaxi may enter an accelerated phase. Dan Ives, a senior Analyst from Wedbush and his team believe that Trump's return to the White House will fundamentally change the narrative logic surrounding Tesla and CEO Musk's companies in the areas of AI, self-driving, and Tesla's AI supercomputing system over the next few years. According to Ives' team, after Trump resumes the presidency, the future approval speed of the US federal government regarding Tesla's FSD fully self-driving features and Robotaxi fully autonomous taxi regulations may significantly speed up.

Ives's team emphasizes: "We estimate that the development opportunities in AI and Self-Driving for Tesla alone are worth 1 trillion dollars. We fully expect that under Trump's leadership of the new USA government, these key initiatives will be expedited. Because Trump once promised to let Musk lead the so-called Government Efficiency Committee to oversee the efficiency of federal government operations, the federal regulatory spider web that Tesla encountered in the past few years around FSD/AIsupercomputer-based Self-Driving will be significantly cleared in the new era under Trump's leadership."

As Musk has long described, Tesla is not just an electric vehicle manufacturer but a leader in the AI field, particularly in the AI-based self-driving sector. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, in an interview, generously praised Tesla's FSD built on AI supercomputing. "Tesla is leading the world in self-driving cars. The revolutionary aspect of Tesla's fully self-driving cars is that it is an end-to-end generative model." "It learns how to drive autonomously end-to-end by watching video—surround view video—and uses generative AI technology to predict paths and understand how to drive the car. Therefore, this technology is truly revolutionary, and the work Tesla has done is incredible."

The fully autonomous taxis (i.e. Robotaxi) that the market anticipates from Tesla will be based on the fully upgraded AI supercomputing FSD technology. Tesla envisions these self-driving cars handling various complex Transportation tasks without human intervention, including large-scale passenger transport, and these vehicles will be integrated into Tesla's broader AI and electric vehicle Global Strategy. However, the widespread deployment of Robotaxi requires comprehensive approval from US and other country regulatory authorities for FSD fully self-driving and Robotaxi road testing.

According to reports, Wedbush has significantly raised its 12-month target price for Tesla from $400 to $515, making it the highest target price on Wall Street. The agency also provided a bullish target price of $650 under an "optimistic scenario," which would bring Tesla's Market Cap to about $2.1 trillion. As of Thursday's US stock market close, Tesla's stock finished at $379.280, up 70% since Trump's victory in November. Additionally, Wedbush expects the Nasdaq Composite Index to reach 25,000 points within 18 months, with Tesla becoming the "biggest winner on the mountaintop" due to Musk's unparalleled influence in both the political and business spheres.

In terms of delivery volumes, although the 2024 delivery volume did not meet market expectations, the Analyst team led by Ives at Wedbush is confident in Tesla's ability to increase delivery volumes in 2025. Wedbush expects Tesla's target delivery growth rate to be 20%-30%. Additionally, the agency anticipates that Tesla will launch a lower-priced electric vehicle model in early 2025, which will serve as a potential catalyst for increasing Tesla's overall electric vehicle delivery volume.