国泰君安研报称，中国航空业具盈利中枢上升的超预期长逻辑，2025年供需恢复趋势确定，考虑票价市场化与机队增速显著放缓，预计将开启盈利中枢上行。预计2025年春运需求旺盛且国内增班有限，业界供需预期乐观，叠加油价压力改善，有望展现超预期盈利弹性，催化乐观预期。市场对航空长逻辑预期仍处低位，分歧越大空间越大。目前业界对春运预期乐观，部分航司预售票价策略积极延续2024年春运。2024年春运国内票价基数较高，积极策略有望助力2025年春运旺季票价市场化效应再次展现。The number of flights operated by domestic Airlines is expected to exceed 0.01 million flights, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 33%.
Starting from December 17, 2024, the transit visa-exemption policy will be fully relaxed and optimized, extending the allowed stay time for visa-exempt foreigners in China from the original 72 hours and 144 hours to 240 hours. Additionally, 21 new entry and exit ports will be added for transit visa-exempt individuals, further expanding the areas where they can stay.
Latest data shows that in the two-week period ending December 31, 2024, the flight volume of domestic Airlines is expected to exceed 0.01 million flights, a year-on-year increase of about 33%. The number of inbound travelers is expected to exceed 1.67 million, a year-on-year increase of about 43%.
GTJA's Research Reports state that China's aviation industry has an unexpectedly rising profit center long logic, with the supply and demand recovery trend confirmed for 2025. Considering ticket price marketization and significantly slowing fleet growth, it is expected to initiate an upward trend in the profit center. The demand during the 2025 Spring Festival travel season is anticipated to be strong, yet domestic flight increases are limited. The industry's supply and demand expectations are optimistic, and combined with improved oil price pressure, there is potential for exceeding expected profit elasticity, catalyzing optimistic expectations. The market's expectations for the long logic of aviation remain low, and greater divergence leads to larger space for growth. Currently, the industry is optimistic about the Spring Festival travel season, with some airlines actively continuing their proactive ticket pricing strategies into the 2024 Spring Festival. In 2024, the domestic ticket price base for the Spring Festival travel season is relatively high, and proactive strategies are likely to assist in showcasing the ticket price marketization effect during the peak season of the 2025 Spring Festival.
HAITONG SEC Research Reports state that since the beginning of this year, international flights have further recovered. With the easing of international relations and the gradual improvement of entry and exit visa policies, it is expected that international air travel demand will further rebound in 2024. In the short term, the demand for private travel during holidays like the National Day is strong, and the supply and demand for international routes are rapidly recovering. However, the dullness of business travel during the off-season may dampen the overall recovery pace, which is also constrained by the economy, potentially affecting price performance. In the long term, the slowdown in the growth rate of capacity introduction by Chinese Airlines is highly certain, and travel confidence is continuously recovering, maintaining a Bullish outlook on the long-term investment logic of the Aviation Industry. It is expected that the profitability center for Airlines will likely elevate in 2024, so attention should be paid to investment opportunities in the Aviation Sector.
Aviation-related stocks in Hong Kong:
China Southern Airlines (01055), Air China Limited (00753), China Eastern Airlines Corporation (00670), CATHAY PAC AIR (00293), BEIJING AIRPORT (00694), TRAVELSKY TECH (00696), MEILAN AIRPORT (00357), and others.